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. 2022 Aug 29;24(11):3395–3421. doi: 10.1007/s10530-022-02858-8

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 6 — Power to identify trends in abundances. Shown are the mean posterior probabilities $P (ϕ < 1 | d, n)$ given data $d$ conditioned on the total counts $n$ and reflecting the certainty that abundances declined across 1000 replicate simulations for different trends $ϕ = 0.5$ , $0.9$ or $0.95$ as a function of the number of observers that each surveyed a single location with observer-specific detection probabilities and location-specific abundances as described in Box 4