Table 1.

Summary of the seven NTDs modelled in this study

	Models used	Causative agents*	Mode of transmission	Main clinical manifestations in endemic settings	Number of people affected worldwide	2030 target: EPHP or EOT
Soil-transmitted helminths	Erasmus MC;22, 23, 24 Imperial College London25	Roundworm (Ascaris lumbricoides), whipworm (Trichuris trichiura), hookworms (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale)	Primarily faecal–oral transmission (also skin penetration of larvae in hookworm)	Diarrhoea, abdominal pain, stunting, general malaise, and weakness	Approximately 1·5 billion people are infected worldwide26	EPHP: ≤2% prevalence of moderate-to-heavy-intensity infections among school-aged children
Schistosomiasis	Imperial College London;27 Oxford and SCHISTOX;28 only for intestinal schistosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa	Parasitic worm, Schistosoma mansoni	Transmission via contact with water containing aquatic snail intermediate host	Anaemia, stunting, diarrhoea, hepatomegaly, portal hypertension, and periportal fibrosis	229 million school-aged children and adults requiring preventive chemotherapy26	EPHP: ≤1% prevalence of heavy-intensity infections among school-aged children
Lymphatic filariasis	Warwick (TRANSFIL);29, 30 Erasmus MC, LYMFASIM31 and University of South Florida, and EPIFIL32	Parasitic worm, Wuchereria bancrofti	Mosquito vector	Hydrocele (scrotal swelling), acute lymphoedema, and chronic lymphoedema (elephantiasis) affecting limbs and genitals	Affects over 120 million people worldwide, with 593 million at risk, and is a leading cause of permanent disability26	EPHP: defined as passing three transmission assessment surveys; operationally equivalent to 1% prevalence of infective stages (microfilariae)
Onchocerciasis	Erasmus MC (ONCHOSIM); 33, 34 Imperial College London, and EPIONCHO35	Parasitic worm, Onchocerca volvulus	Blackfly vector	Skin disease (eg, severe itching), visual Impairment, and permanent blindness	2·9 million O volvulus infections worldwide26	EOT
Trachoma	Oxford36	Bacterial eye infection, Chlamydia trachomatis	Predominantly direct personal contact	Repeated episodes of conjunctivitis, which can lead to scarring, entropion (in-turning of eyelids), trichiasis (abrasion of cornea by the eyelashes), and eventual blindness	Responsible for blindness or visual impairment of 1·9 million people; 137 million at risk of blindness26	EPHP: reduction of trachomatous inflammation—follicular in children aged 1–9 years to less than 5%; prevalence of trachomatous trichiasis unknown to health system <0·2% (trichiasis not modelled here)
Visceral leishmaniasis	Erasmus MC;37, 38 only for India	Protozoa, Leishmania donovani	Sandfly vector	Persistent fever, enlarged liver and spleen, death if untreated	50 000–90 000 new cases per year globally26	EPHP: <1 per 10 000 inhabitants per year at subdistrict level in India
Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis	Warwick;39, 40 Swiss TPH;41 specified for DR Congo	Protozoa, Trypanosoma brucei gambiense	Tsetse fly vector	Stage 1: mild symptoms (eg, fever and headaches); stage 2: neurological disorders resulting in death if untreated	51 million people estimated to be at risk of infection26	EPHP: <1 case per 10 000 inhabitants per year averaged over a 5-year period by 2020; EOT: zero reported cases by 2030

Further details on transmission, epidemiology, control strategies, and elimination targets for each disease are available in the WHO NTD factsheets²⁶ and the WHO 2021–30 NTD roadmap.⁵ For more information on the models used see figure 1 and the appendix (pp 5–33). NTD=neglected tropical disease. EPHP=elimination as a public health problem. EOT=elimination of transmission. SCHISTOX=schistosomiasis Oxford model. TRANSFIL=transmission model of filariasis. LYMFASIM=lymphatic filariasis simulation model. EPIFIL=epidemiological model of filariasis. ONCHOSIM=onchocerciasis simulation model. EPIONCHO=epidemiological model of onchocerciasis.

^*Causative agents considered in this study.