. 2022 Oct 19;118:106083. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106083

Table 2.

Coefficient estimates.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Main equation	Reduced form equation	Reduced form equation	Main equation	Reduced form equation	Reduced form equation
Dependent variable	$\ln {c a s e s}_{i t}$	$\ln {a r r i v a l s}_{i t - 2}$	${A I 7 d a y s}_{i t}$	$\ln {c a s e s}_{i t}$	$\ln {a r r i v a l s}_{i t - 2}$	${A I 14 d a y s}_{i t}$
$\ln {a r r i v a l s}_{i t - 2}$	3.483*** (1.235)			4.080*** (1.246)
${A I 7 d a y s}_{i t}$	0.022*** (0.003)
${A I 14 d a y s}_{i t}$				0.011*** (0.001)
${A u g u s t}_{i t}$	0.506*** (0.152)		10.410** (5.183)	0.686*** (0.151)		11.014 (9.570)
${S e p t e m b e r}_{i t}$	0.185 (0.204)		23.306*** (8.506)	0.472** (0.193)		29.862* (15.712)
${S u n d a y}_{i t}$	0.726* (0.397)		2.020 (2.329)	0.917** (0.405)		4.434 (4.299)
${t r e n d}_{i t}$	0.334*** (0.038)		5.695*** (0.892)	0.347*** (0.039)		14.072*** (1.888)
${t r e n d}_{i t}^{2}$	−0.009*** (0.001)		−0.039 (0.030)	−0.010*** (0.001)		−0.144** (0.062)
$\hat{ξ_{i t - 2}}$	−3.819*** (1.269)			−4.593*** (1.305)
$\hat{υ_{i t}}$	−0.014*** (0.003)			−0.008*** (0.001)
$\overline{{A I 7 d a y s}_{i t - 2}}$		−0.001*** (4.7e-04)
${A I 7 d a y s}_{i t - 2}$		−2.9e-04*** (6.0e-05)
$\overline{{A I 14 d a y s}_{i t - 2}}$					−0.001*** (2.9e-04)
${A I 14 d a y s}_{i t - 2}$					−1.5e-04*** (3.3e-05)
${J u n e}_{i t - 2}$		−0.052*** (0.016)			−0.049*** (0.015)
${A u g u s t}_{i t - 2}$		−0.014 (0.012)			−0.019 (0.012)
${S e p t e m b e r}_{i t - 2}$		0.041** (0.020)			0.038* (0.020)
${S u n d a y}_{i t - 2}$		−0.317*** (0.005)			−0.316*** (0.005)
${t r e n d}_{i t - 2}$		−0.008*** (0.003)			−0.009*** (0.003)
${t r e n d}_{i t - 2}^{2}$		4.2e-04*** (1.0e-04)			0.001*** (1.2e-04)
${T e m p}_{i t - 2}$		0.002* (0.001)			0.002* (0.001)
${T e m p 7 d a y s}_{i t}$			−3.750*** (0.740)
${S D T e m p 7 d a y s}_{i t}$			−26.318*** (4.966)
${T e m p 14 d a y s}_{i t}$						−13.308*** (1.752)
${S D T e m p 14 d a y s}_{i t}$						−55.739*** (11.655)
constant	−37.208*** (12.375)	9.979*** (0.021)	116.771*** (18.371)	−43.103*** (12.467)	9.941*** (0.031)	348.805*** (40.394)
Province fixed effects	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Number of provinces	52	52	52	52	52	52
Number of time periods	27	27	29	27	27	29
R-squared	0.692	0.758	0.580	0.684	0.758	0.618
Observations	1404	1404	1508	1404	1404	1508

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1. Standard errors for the main equation have been bootstrapped after 1000 replications. The reference categories are June/July and Wednesday.