Table 2.

Estimated regression model coefficients relevant to the factors hypothesized to modify the risk of animal or human Rabies in Thailand.

Variable	n districts	Univariable models	Finalized Multivariable model	Finalized Multivariable Bayesian CAR model
		Coefficient (CI95%) Exponentiated values	Coefficient (CI95%) Exponentiated values	Median	Credible interval
				Exponentiated values
Intercept			0.0006 (0.0005–0.0007)	0.00003	0.00001–0.00006
Dog attacks/bites (total count = 2,265,428)
≤3611 attacks	705	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
>3611 attacks	228	0.86 (0.78–0.94)*	0.88 (0.79–0.97)*	1.19	0.78–1.76
Total dogs: owned and un-owned## (total count = 7,472,037)
≤14,582 dogs	816	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
>14,582 dogs	112	0.55 (0.49–0.62)*	0.61 (0.54–0.68)*	0.78	0.43–1.37
Un-owned female dogs (total count = 411,368)
≤1109 dogs	837	Ref.
>1109 dogs	91	0.61 (0.55–0.67)*
Total cats (total count = 3,035,653)
≤3173 cats	630	Ref.
>3173 cats	298	0.50 (0.46–0.55)*
Buddhist temples (total count =32,786)
≤50 temples	706	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
>50 temples	222	1.14 (1.03–1.25)*	1. 10 (0.98–1.24)#	1.01	0.63–1.62
Average poverty
≤13	651	Ref.	Ref.
>13	277	1.15 (1.04–1.27)*	1.17 (1.04–1.31)*	1.14	0.72–1.81
Human population of 2015 (68,071,557)			Included as an offset	Included as an offset
≤50,000	468	Ref.
50,000–200,000	407	1.95 (1.73–2.19)*
>200,000	53	3.55 (3.09–4.07)*
Sharing country borders
No international borders	799	Ref.	Ref.	Ref.
Myanmar (Burma)	45	0.85 (0.64–1.15)	0.65 (0.48–0.88)*	4.51	1.05–21.50
Malaysia	15	1.65 (1.17–2.31)*	1.45 (1.03–2.04)*	1.50	0.18–10.82
Cambodia	20	1.78 (1.14–2.23)*	1.47 (1.17–1.87)*	1.50	0.48–6.03
Laos	49	2.42 (2.07–2.84)*	1.96 (1.65–2.31)*	5.99	2.35–10.82
Garbage dumps (total count =2272)
≤6 dumps	854	Ref.
>6 dumps	74	0.951 (0.72–1.25)
Yearly average of PEP¥ (total count = 51, 296)
≤81	760	Ref.
>81	168	0.75 (0.66–0.84)*
Animal vaccines of 2016## (total count =907, 400)
≤ 2153 doses	853	Ref.
> 2153 doses	75	0.36 (0.31–0.43)*
Spatial dependence		N/A	N/A
Omega - intercept				−201.56	−645.3 to −12.17
Tau				8.48	7.34–11.17
Spatial autocorrelation parameter (ρ)				0.98	0.94–0.99

The dependent variable was the counts of human or animal rabies in each district during 2012–2016 period. Human population was used as an offset. The unit of analysis was the districts of Thailand (n = 928). Frequentist univariable and multivariable zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression models were used to identify and finalize the key factors. The factors finalized in multivariable ZIP variables were used in a Bayesian conditional autoregressive (CAR) model to account for the spatial dependence.

*p-values from the Likelihood Ratio Test (<0.05). ^#p-values from the Likelihood Ratio Test (between 0.06 and 0.1). PEP^¥ = yearly average of the number of human post exposure prophylaxis. Total dogs and Animal vaccines were highly correlated (0.91)^##.