Table 3.

Posterior estimates for direct and indirect treatment effects for lags 0–7 weeks for all models. Estimates correspond to the expected percentage increase in cases from an increase in mobility 50% above baseline ($100\cdot (exp\left(50\cdot \delta \right)-1)$). 95% credible intervals are shown in parentheses, and estimates significant at the 95% level are denoted with $\ast$.

Model	Lag (weeks)	Direct effect		Indirect effect
Full	0	2.0	(−9.0, 14.1)*	−12.9	(−35.1, 17.0)*
	1	1.0	(−9.5, 12.6)*	−28.0	(−45.7, −4.6)*
	2	4.9	(−5.8, 16.8)*	−9.4	(−31.8, 22.1)*
	3	3.5	(−7.8, 16.4)*	−9.6	(−32.5, 20.0)*
	4	15.7	(2.8, 29.9)*	−7.6	(−33.1, 28.3)*
	5	24.8	(11.0, 40.2)*	0.3	(−25.3, 34.6)*
	6	25.7	(12.3, 40.7)*	−9.9	(−33.2, 21.0)*
	7	24.3	(11.0, 39.1)*	24.2	(−7.5, 66.5)*
No Nugget	0	−0.8	(−11.6, 11.7)*	−21.7	(−41.1, 4.1)*
	1	−1.5	(−11.8, 9.8)*	−28.5	(−46.4, −4.6)*
	2	3.6	(−7.2, 15.6)*	−15.4	(−35.7, 12.1)*
	3	0.3	(−10.4, 12.3)*	−19.3	(−38.5, 6.2)*
	4	12.3	(−0.3, 28.0)*	−13.7	(−35.5, 15.4)*
	5	22.7	(9.1, 37.8)*	3.1	(−22.8, 37.7)*
	6	22.2	(8.7, 37.2)*	−18.0	(−38.8, 11.4)*
	7	22.8	(9.2, 37.7)*	2.3	(−22.9, 35.7)*
No PS	0	−2.7	(−8.0, 2.8)*	2.9	(−9.4, 17.1)*
	1	2.1	(−3.1, 7.7)*	8.7	(−5.0, 24.1)*
	2	6.6	(0.9, 12.9)*	20.1	(5.1, 39.2)*
	3	11.9	(5.6, 18.7)*	32.5	(12.3, 57.3)*
	4	15.6	(9.2, 22.3)*	32.7	(15.1, 59.5)*
	5	15.3	(9.6, 21.6)*	27.6	(10.4, 48.4)*
	6	12.4	(6.7, 18.4)*	20.3	(5.6, 37.4)*
	7	10.8	(5.2, 16.7)*	21.0	(6.3, 37.2)*
Non-spatial	0	−2.6	(−17.0, 13.8)*	7.7	(−12.5, 32.0)*
	1	−5.9	(−19.8, 10.1)*	−46.4	(−57.1, −34.5)*
	2	−0.9	(−14.9, 15.5)*	−25.7	(−39.3, −9.4)*
	3	−4.3	(−17.7, 11.5)*	−37.2	(−48.3, −23.5)*
	4	9.8	(−6.1, 28.8)*	−21.6	(−35.2, −4.2)*
	5	25.1	(7.3, 45.5)*	35.8	(13.3, 62.4)*
	6	19.3	(3.0, 38.0)*	−10.5	(−24.3, 6.2)*
	7	24.2	(6.8, 44.5)*	6.1	(−11.1, 26.5)*