Table 4.
Percent of patients whose risk was among the top 20%, 15%, 10%, 5% and 2.5%, sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted Value (PPV), and risk fold increase for each of the three models.
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High risk patients | High risk patients | High risk patients | |||||||||||||
| Top 20% | Top 15% | Top 10% | Top 5% | Top 2.5% | Top 20% | Top 15% | Top 10% | Top 5% | Top 2.5% | Top 20% | Top 15% | Top 10% | Top 5% | Top 2.5% | |
| No. of eligible patients whose risk was above each risk threshold | 2278 | 1708 | 1139 | 569 | 285 | 2267 | 1701 | 1134 | 567 | 284 | 2278 | 1709 | 1139 | 570 | 285 |
| Sensitivity (%) | 60.0 | 52.0 | 42.0 | 27.3 | 17.3 | 56.2 | 48.7 | 37.1 | 25.3 | 16.0 | 60.0 | 52.7 | 39.0 | 24.2 | 14.7 |
| Specificity (%) | 80.3 | 85.3 | 90.3 | 95.2 | 97.6 | 80.3 | 85.3 | 90.2 | 95.2 | 97.6 | 80.3 | 85.3 | 90.3 | 95.2 | 97.6 |
| PPV (%) | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Fold increase in risk* | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
*
Compared the incidence rate in the entire cohort.
Model 1: Age, weight change, HbA1c change, HgA1c change rate
Model 2: Age, weight change, HbA1c change, HgA1c in prior 6 months
Model 3: Age, weight change, HbA1c change, HgA1c in prior 18 months
All reported numbers were average across 20, 8 and 6 validation datasets for Models 1, 2 and 3, respectively, estimated in patients with complete 36 months follow up or those who developed PDAC in 36 months (n=11,379).