Table 1.
Published time estimates for the end of Earth’s biosphere
| Source | Time estimate | Cause |
|---|---|---|
| Sagan and Mullen (1972) | 3–4.5 Gyr | Runaway greenhouse |
| Lovelock and Whitfield (1982) | 100 Myr | CO2 depletion |
| Caldeira and Kasting (1992) | 0.9–1.5 Gyr | CO2 depletion |
| Franck et al. (1999) |
0.5–0.8 Gyr 1–1.5 Gyr |
CO2 depletion Surface temperatures 100 °C |
| Franck et al. (2000) | 0.48–0.63 Gyr | CO2 depletion |
| Franck et al. (2002) | 1.2 Gyr | CO2 depletion |
| Lenton and von Bloh (2001) | 1.2 Gyr | Overheating |
| von Bloh et al. (2003) | 1.2 Gyr | Overheating |
| Franck et al. (2006) | 0.8–1.6 Gyr | Overheating, gradually affecting multicellular, eukaryotic and prokaryotic life |
| O’Malley-James et al. (2012) |
1.0 Gyr 2.8 Gyr |
Moist greenhouse Overheating |
| Rushby et al. (2013) | 1.75–3.25 Gyr | Overheating |
| Leconte et al. (2013) | 1.0–5.0 Gyr | Runaway greenhouse |
| Kopparapu et al. (2013) (using solar model from Gough, 1981) |
0.17 0.65 Gyr |
Moist greenhouse Overheating |
| Rushby (2015) |
0.84 Gyr 1.8 Gyr |
CO2 depletion Runaway greenhouse |
| Wolf and Toon (2014) | 1.5–5.0 Gyr | |
| Wolf and Toon (2015) | 2.0 Gyr | Moist greenhouse |
| Ozaki and Reinhard (2021) | 1.08 Gyr | CO2 depletion and deoxygenation (followed by moist greenhouse) |