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. 2022 Oct 27;21:15. doi: 10.1186/s12942-022-00317-0

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.

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Fig. 13 — The blue solid line shows the average monthly index P and its 95% confidence interval (upper and lower thresholds) during 2010–2020 when using the same priors as Obolski et al. [18]. The pink dashed line shows these estimates changing two parameters to the values used by Petrone et al. [15]. The left-hand side panel shows the estimation when changing the Human Incubation Period (HIP) parameter. The middle panel shows the estimations when changing the Mosquito Life Expectancy (MLE) parameter. The right-hand side parameter shows the estimation when changing both these parameters simultaneously