Fig. 2. Anthropogenic changes in extreme heat.

(A) Ensemble mean change in each region’s average Tx5d value between the observed and counterfactual climates estimated using CMIP6 climate models. (B) Ensemble mean change in the probability of each region’s counterfactual 90th percentile Tx5d value between the observed and counterfactual climates. Increases in both quantities imply that the values are higher in the observed climates than in the counterfactual climate. Ensemble mean values are calculated by first averaging over individual realizations within models and then averaging across models. Values are calculated over 1992–2013 to overlap with the period over which the damages calculations are performed.