Fig. 3. Evolution of the growth response to extreme heat intensity.

(A) Distributed lag coefficients for two example regions, one with an annual average temperature of 25°C (red) and one with an annual average temperature of 5°C (blue). Dots show averages, and bars show 95% confidence intervals from bootstrap resampling (see Materials and Methods). (B) Simulated response of annual GDPpc growth in a constant 3% growth baseline scenario (dashed line) and a heat wave scenario in a warm region (solid line). (C) Simulated response of annual GDPpc expressed as income change in a constant 3% growth baseline scenario (dashed line) and a heat wave scenario in a warm region (solid line). Shaded red area denotes the difference between the baseline and heat wave scenarios, representing the income lost due to the heat wave. Annotations in (B) and (C) represent the initial constant-growth period (1), the period in which growth declines because of the heat wave (2), the period in which growth rebounds and increases relative to the initial period (3), and the period in which growth stabilizes back to its initial rate (4).