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. 2022 Oct 28;8(43):eadd3726. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.add3726

Fig. 4. Unequal economic effects of anthropogenic changes to extreme heat intensity.

Fig. 4.

(A) Average annual change in regional GDPpc due to anthropogenic changes in Tx5d intensity over 1992–2013. (B) Cumulative 1992–2013 change in regional GDP in 2010 U.S. dollars due to anthropogenic changes in Tx5d intensity. (C) Cumulative global GDP change due to anthropogenic changes in extreme heat. Black line denotes the mean across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and gray shading denotes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change likely (66%), very likely (90%), and virtually certain (99%) ranges. (D) Average annual change in regional GDPpc due to anthropogenic extreme heat, binned by regional income deciles. Uncertainty visualization is the same as (C). (E) Relationship between each country’s 2010 GDPpc percentile and the regional-average effect of anthropogenic changes to extreme heat in that country. Colors denote each country’s fossil fuel CO2 (FF-CO2) emissions anomaly (difference between its log cumulative FF-CO2 emissions and global mean log cumulative FF-CO2 emissions). Color bar units are the log of gigatons of carbon (GtC). Black line is the least-squares regression line with the 95% confidence intervals shaded.