TABLE 1.
The RHD-related ASPRs in 1990, 2020, and 2030, and their temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 and from 2020 to 2030.
| 1990 | 2020 | 2030 | 1990–2019 | 2020–2030 | |
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| Characteristics | ASPRs per 100, 000 (95% UI) |
ASPRs per 100, 000 (95% CI) |
ASPRs per 100, 000 (95% CI) |
EAPC of ASPRs (95% CI) |
EAPC of ASPRs (95% CI) |
| Global | 451.56 (363.35,552.54) | 523.86 (511.92,535.81) | 559.88 (452.19,667.58) | 0.57 (0.50,0.63) | 0.67 (0.66,0.68) |
| Sex | |||||
| Female | 501.56 (405.50,609.67) | 582.20 (569.08,595.32) | 631.51 (510.17,752.85) | 0.55 (0.48,0.63) | 0.82 (0.81,0.83) |
| Male | 400.46 (321.44,492.36) | 465.35 (454.84,475.86) | 487.20 (394.83,579.58) | 0.59 (0.53,0.65) | 0.46 (0.45,0.47) |
| SDI | |||||
| High SDI | 82.93 (71.82,93.74) | 72.51 (69.45,75.58) | 74.38 (49.24,99.52) | −0.27 (−0.41, −0.13) | 0.25 (0.21,0.29) |
| High-middle SDI | 289.23 (246.15,342.21) | 274.56 (269.00,280.12) | 272.22 (217.30,327.14) | 0.00 (−0.13,0.13) | −0.09 (−0.09, −0.08) |
| Middle SDI | 501.87 (396.81,624.96) | 500.87 (491.10,510.63) | 500.46 (414.40,586.52) | 0.11 (0.03,0.19) | −0.01 (−0.01, −0.01) |
| Low-middle SDI | 644.37 (503.97,805.80) | 699.12 (681.18,717.06) | 722.54 (578.21,866.86) | 0.28 (0.25,0.31) | 0.33 (0.33,0.34) |
| Low SDI | 832.91 (648.55,1039.27) | 889.00 (879.72,898.29) | 862.32 (739.79,984.84) | 0.30 (0.28,0.32) | −0.30 (−0.31, −0.30) |
| Regions | |||||
| High-income Asia Pacific | 49.45 (41.49,57.17) | 35.01 (33.64,36.38) | 35.75 (22.83,48.66) | −1.58 (−1.69, −1.46) | 0.20 (0.20,0.21) |
| High-income North America | 123.49 (104.25,142.40) | 112.41 (107.29,117.54) | 114.30 (80.36,148.24) | 0.02 (−0.17,0.22) | 0.16 (0.14,0.19) |
| Western Europe | 55.18 (47.96,63.00) | 40.70 (39.75,41.65) | 40.82 (31.92,49.71) | −1.27 (−1.34, −1.20) | 0.02 (0.01,0.03) |
| Australasia | 61.01 (51.93,70.06) | 51.32 (50.15,52.49) | 56.75 (43.77,69.72) | −0.76 (−0.92, −0.59) | 1.01 (0.99,1.03) |
| Eastern Europe | 215.61 (190.56,244.46) | 133.72 (129.43,138.01) | 137.61 (95.11,180.10) | −1.62 (−1.83, −1.41) | 0.28 (0.24,0.32) |
| Central Europe | 144.04 (129.59,160.06) | 93.45 (90.35,96.56) | 76.50 (55.50,97.49) | −1.29 (−1.40, −1.17) | −1.98 (−1.99, −1.97) |
| Southern Latin America | 469.70 (374.66,582.67) | 490.51 (484.78,496.23) | 513.92 (437.16,590.68) | 0.15 (0.12,0.18) | 0.47 (0.47,0.47) |
| East Asia | 441.29 (349.90,549.84) | 388.17 (377.45,398.89) | 394.11 (301.95,486.27) | −0.22 (−0.40, −0.04) | 0.15 (0.15,0.15) |
| Central Asia | 590.89 (470.83,729.78) | 628.40 (617.66,639.14) | 626.48 (522.89,730.07) | 0.19 (0.17,0.21) | −0.03 (−0.04, −0.02) |
| North Africa and Middle East | 368.81 (293.17,455.91) | 394.27 (388.55,400.00) | 415.03 (347.83,482.23) | 0.22 (0.16,0.27) | 0.51 (0.51,0.52) |
| Southeast Asia | 274.88 (225.94,333.61) | 287.17 (282.83,291.50) | 300.84 (249.08,352.60) | 0.15 (0.11,0.19) | 0.47 (0.46,0.48) |
| Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 1071.74 (835.28,1350.28) | 1091.38 (1079.84,1102.92) | 1093.31 (939.03,1247.59) | 0.04 (0.03,0.06) | 0.02 (0.02,0.02) |
| Tropical Latin America | 899.05 (699.28,1119.15) | 917.52 (908.95,926.09) | 919.65 (799.92,1039.39) | 0.08 (0.07,0.09) | 0.02 (0.02,0.02) |
| Andean Latin America | 793.87 (615.64,992.80) | 813.21 (804.31,822.12) | 815.35 (700.40,930.29) | 0.09 (0.06,0.11) | 0.03 (0.02,0.03) |
| Caribbean | 747.85 (581.94,932.43) | 788.04 (779.19,796.88) | 795.44 (683.47,907.41) | 0.18 (0.18,0.18) | 0.09 (0.09,0.10) |
| Central Latin America | 358.19 (287.12,435.28) | 355.91 (352.05,359.78) | 370.99 (316.80,425.17) | −0.07 (−0.14,0.00) | 0.42 (0.41,0.42) |
| South Asia | 623.88 (481.49,781.45) | 662.22 (631.56,692.88) | 666.98 (500.17,833.79) | 0.26 (0.21,0.31) | 0.08 (0.07,0.09) |
| Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 1184.76 (910.15,1512.89) | 1196.93 (1184.56,1209.30) | 1212.34 (1047.07,1377.60) | −0.03 (−0.05, −0.01) | 0.13 (0.12,0.13) |
| Oceania | 543.08 (430.73,690.95) | 587.12 (577.08,597.16) | 588.23 (470.59,705.86) | 0.34 (0.27,0.41) | 0.02 (0.02,0.02) |
| Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 794.99 (618.33,1001.81) | 839.98 (831.77,848.19) | 832.77 (721.05,944.48) | 0.22 (0.19,0.24) | −0.09 (−0.09, −0.08) |
| Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 1093.85 (849.57,1370.07) | 1179.01 (1166.38,1191.64) | 1187.93 (1015.00,1360.87) | 0.27 (0.25,0.28) | 0.08 (0.07,0.08) |
RHD, rheumatic heart disease; ASPRs, age-standardized prevalence rates; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; UI, uncertainty interval; CI, confidence interval; SDI, sociodemographic index.