Table 3.
Association of changes in MetS components with the risk of CVD, Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study
| Women (n = 2684) | Men (n = 1940) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||||
| Parameter | Events/n |
Incidence
Rate per 1000 Person-Years |
HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | Events/n |
Incidence
Rate per 1000 Person-Years |
HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | * Women-to-men RHR | |
| High WC | ||||||||||
| High WC-free | 82/1288 | 3.8 (3.1–4.7) | Reference | Reference | 100/729 | 8.6 (7.0-10.5) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High WC-recovery | 26/224 | 6.9 (4.7–10.2) | 1.30 (0.83–2.02) | 1.16 (0.74–1.82) | 18/82 | 14.4 (9.0-22.8) | 1.69 (1.03–2.80) | 1.54 (0.93–2.56) | 0.75 (0.38–1.47) | |
| High WC-developed | 20/223 | 5.3 (3.4–8.3) | 1.13 (0.69–1.84) | 0.98 (0.59–1.61) | 30/202 | 9.3 (6.5–13.3) | 1.09 (0.72–1.64) | 0.99 (0.65–1.51) | 0.98 (0.51–1.86) | |
| High WC-stable | 164/949 | 10.6 (9.1–12.4) | 1.74 (1.33–2.28) | 1.35 (0.98–1.87) | 179/927 | 12.1 (10.5–14.1) | 1.31 (1.02–1.67) | 1.07 (0.80–1.43) | 1.26 (0.87–1.82) | |
| High FPG | ||||||||||
| High FPG-free | 125/1796 | 4.1 (3.4–4.9) | Reference | Reference | 180/1275 | 8.8 (7.6–10.1) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High FPG-recovery | 17/166 | 6.2 (3.9–10.1) | 1.11 (0.67–1.84) | 0.95 (0.57–1.58) | 20/152 | 7.9 (5.1–12.3) | 0.68 (0.43–1.08) | 0.65 (0.41–1.04) | 1.44 (0.72–2.87) | |
| High FPG-developed | 17/156 | 6.4 (4.0-10.4) | 1.30 (0.78–2.15) | 1.15 (0.69–1.91) | 29/163 | 11.2 (7.7–16.1) | 1.05 (0.71–1.55) | 0.98 (0.66–1.45) | 1.16 (0.61–2.22) | |
| High FPG-stable | 133/566 | 15.0 (12.6–17.8) | 2.39 (1.86–3.06) | 1.89 (1.46–2.45) | 98/350 | 18.8 (15.4–23.0) | 1.55 (1.21–1.99) | 1.41 (1.09–1.81) | 1.34 (0.94–1.91) | |
| High TG | ||||||||||
| High TG-free | 62/1107 | 3.3 (2.5–4.2) | Reference | Reference | 114/706 | 10.2 (8.4–12.2) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High TG-recovery | 39/288 | 8.2 (6.0-11.3) | 1.92 (1.28–2.86) | 1.76 (1.18–2.64) | 37/244 | 9.5 (6.9–13.1) | 1.20 (0.83–1.74) | 1.10 (0.75–1.60) | 1.60 (0.92–2.78) | |
| High TG-developed | 33/319 | 6.2 (4.4–8.8) | 1.51 (0.99–2.30) | 1.44 (0.94–2.21) | 32/199 | 10.0 (7.1–14.2) | 1.12 (0.76–1.66) | 1.02 (0.69–1.52) | 1.41 (0.79–2.51) | |
| High TG-stable | 158/970 | 10.1 (8.6–11.7) | 2.09 (1.55–2.81) | 1.60 (1.17–2.19) | 144/791 | 11.5 (9.7–13.5) | 1.37 (1.07–1.76) | 1.17 (0.90–1.52) | 1.37 (0.92–2.02) | |
| Low HDL | ||||||||||
| Low HDL-free | 32/307 | 6.3 (4.4–8.9) | Reference | Reference | 50/322 | 9.8 (7.4–13.0) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| Low HDL-recovery | 38/397 | 5.7 (4.1–7.8) | 0.98 (0.61–1.56) | 0.96 (0.60–1.55) | 51/348 | 9.1 (6.9–11.9) | 1.11 (0.75–1.64) | 1.10 (0.74–1.62) | 0.87 (0.47–1.62) | |
| Low HDL-developed | 14/149 | 5.8 (3.4–9.8) | 0.93 (0.50–1.75) | 0.89 (0.47–1.67) | 23/129 | 11.6 (7.7–17.5) | 1.37 (0.84–2.25) | 1.25 (0.76–2.06) | 0.70 (0.31–1.57) | |
| Low HDL-stable | 208/1831 | 6.8 (6.0-7.8) | 1.14 (0.79–1.66) | 0.94 (0.64–1.38) | 203/1141 | 11.2 (9.7–12.8) | 1.42 (1.04–1.93) | 1.17 (0.85–1.62) | 0.80 (0.49–1.30) | |
| High BP | ||||||||||
| High BP-free | 75/1605 | 2.7 (2.1–3.4) | Reference | Reference | 117/1077 | 6.6 (5.5–7.9) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High BP-recovery | 40/301 | 8.1 (6.0-11.1) | 1.92 (1.30–2.83) | 1.77 (1.19–2.61) | 39/201 | 12.6 (9.2–17.2) | 1.53 (1.06–2.20) | 1.45 (1.01–2.09) | 1.21 (0.71–2.06) | |
| High BP-developed | 32/222 | 8.8 (6.2–12.4) | 2.25 (1.48–3.41) | 1.98 (1.30–3.01) | 45/231 | 12.2 (9.1–16.4) | 1.29 (0.91–1.83) | 1.34 (0.94–1.90) | 1.47 (0.86–2.53) | |
| High BP-stable | 145/556 | 16.8 (14.3–19.8) | 3.15 (2.35–4.23) | 2.55 (1.88–3.45) | 126/431 | 19.6 (16.0-23.3) | 1.72 (1.32–2.23) | 1.65 (1.26–2.16) | 1.54 (1.05–2.26) | |
Model 1: Adjusted for age, Model 2: Adjusted for age, smoking status, physical activity level, education, marital status, family history of CVD, body mass index + other components of MetS.
*Women to men RHR: The value shows women-to-men relative hazard ratio for each parameter obtained in model 2. MetS: metabolic syndrome; CVD: cardiovascular diseases; CI: confidence interval; HR: hazard ratio; RHR: ratio of hazard ratios; BP: blood pressure; FPG: fasting plasma glucose; TG: Triglycerides; HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; WC; waist circumference