Table 4.
Association of changes in MetS components with the risk of CHD, Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study
| Women (n = 2684) | Men (n = 1940) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||||
| Parameter | Events/n |
Incidence
Rate per 1000 Person-Years |
HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | Events/n |
Incidence
Rate per 1000 Person-Years |
HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | * Women-to-men RHR | |
| High WC | ||||||||||
| High WC-free | 67/1288 | 3.1 (2.4–3.9) | Reference | Reference | 85/729 | 7.3 (5.9-9.0) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High WC-recovery | 19/224 | 5.0 (3.2–7.9) | 1.20 (0.72-2.00) | 1.11 (0.66–1.87) | 17/82 | 13.4 (8.3–21.6) | 1.87 (1.11–3.14) | 1.73 (1.03–2.92) | 0.64 (0.30–1.33) | |
| High WC-developed | 18/223 | 4.8 (3.0-7.6) | 1.29 (0.76–2.17) | 1.19 (0.69–2.03) | 24/202 | 7.4 (4.9–11.1) | 1.03 (0.65–1.62) | 0.96 (0.60–1.52) | 1.23 (0.61–2.47) | |
| High WC-stable | 126/949 | 8.1 (6.8–9.6) | 1.71 (1.27–2.31) | 1.48 (1.03–2.12) | 156/927 | 10.5 (9.0-12.3) | 1.35 (1.04–1.76) | 1.20 (0.88–1.65) | 1.23 (0.82–1.83) | |
| High FPG | ||||||||||
| High FPG-free | 92/1796 | 3.0 (2.4–3.7) | Reference | Reference | 159/1275 | 7.7 (6.6-9.0) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High FPG-recovery | 13/166 | 4.7 (2.7–8.2) | 1.19 (0.66–2.12) | 1.00 (0.56–1.79) | 18/152 | 7.1 (4.4–11.3) | 0.72 (0.44–1.17) | 0.69 (0.42–1.13) | 1.44 (0.67–3.08) | |
| High FPG-developed | 17/156 | 6.4 (4.0-10.4) | 1.82 (1.08–3.06) | 1.61 (0.95–2.71) | 23/163 | 8.8 (5.8–13.2) | 0.97 (0.62–1.50) | 0.91 (0.59–1.41) | 1.76 (0.89–3.47) | |
| High FPG-stable | 108/566 | 12.1 (10.0-14.6) | 2.76 (2.08–3.66) | 2.20 (1.65–2.95) | 82/350 | 15.5 (12.5–19.3) | 1.50 (1.14–1.96) | 1.36 (1.03–1.79) | 1.62 (1.09–2.40) | |
| High TG | ||||||||||
| High TG-free | 46/1107 | 2.4 (1.8–3.2) | Reference | Reference | 88/706 | 7.8 (6.3–9.6) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High TG-recovery | 28/288 | 5.8 (4.1–8.5) | 1.88 (1.18–3.01) | 1.70 (1.06–2.74) | 36/244 | 9.2 (6.6–12.8) | 1.46 (0.99–2.16) | 1.35 (0.91–2.01) | 1.26 (0.68–2.32) | |
| High TG-developed | 27/319 | 5.1 (3.4–7.4) | 1.71 (1.06–2.75) | 1.57 (0.97–2.54) | 30/199 | 9.4 (6.6–13.5) | 1.36 (0.90–2.06) | 1.23 (0.81–1.88) | 1.27 (0.67–2.40) | |
| High TG-stable | 129/970 | 8.1 (6.8–9.7) | 2.38 (1.69–3.34) | 1.80 (1.26–2.56) | 128/791 | 10.1 (8.5–12.1) | 1.54 (1.18–2.03) | 1.31 (0.98–1.75) | 1.37 (0.88–2.13) | |
| Low HDL | ||||||||||
| Low HDL-free | 23/307 | 4.5 (3.0-6.8) | Reference | Reference | 39/322 | 7.6 (5.6–10.5) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| Low HDL-recovery | 26/397 | 3.8 (2.6–5.7) | 0.91 (0.52–1.59) | 1.13 (0.73–1.75) | 43/348 | 7.6 (5.6–10.3) | 1.17 (0.76–1.81) | 0.88 (0.50–1.54) | 0.77 (0.37–1.57) | |
| Low HDL-developed | 13/149 | 5.3 (3.1–9.2) | 1.19 (0.60–2.35) | 1.17 (0.67–2.06) | 18/129 | 8.9 (5.6–14.2) | 1.33 (0.76–2.32) | 1.09 (0.55–2.16) | 0.93 (0.38–2.23) | |
| Low HDL-stable | 168/1831 | 5.5 (4.7–6.4) | 1.27 (0.82–1.96) | 1.27 (0.89–1.82) | 182/1141 | 10.0 (8.6–11.5) | 1.59 (1.12–2.24) | 1.00 (0.64–1.56) | 0.78 (0.44–1.37) | |
| High BP | ||||||||||
| High BP-free | 66/1605 | 2.4 (1.9-3.0) | Reference | Reference | 108/1077 | 6.1 (5.1–7.4) | Reference | Reference | - | |
| High BP-recovery | 29/301 | 5.8 (4.1–8.4) | 1.65 (1.06–2.56) | 1.52 (0.97–2.37) | 33/201 | 10.5 (7.5–14.9) | 1.43 (0.96–2.11) | 1.34 (0.91–1.99) | 1.12 (0.62–2.03) | |
| High BP-developed | 21/222 | 5.7 (3.7–8.7) | 1.72 (1.05–2.82) | 1.50 (0.91–2.47) | 41/231 | 11.1 (8.2–15.1) | 1.34 (0.93–1.93) | 1.41 (0.98–2.04) | 1.06 (0.57–1.95) | |
| High BP-stable | 114/556 | 13.1 (10.9–15.8) | 3.02 (2.19–4.16) | 2.43 (1.75–3.39) | 100/431 | 15.3 (12.6–18.7) | 1.54 (1.16–2.05) | 1.49 (1.11-2.00) | 1.62 (1.07–2.47) | |
Model 1: Adjusted for age, Model 2: Adjusted for age, smoking status, physical activity level, education, marital status, family history of CVD, body mass index + other components of MetS.
*Women to men RHR: The value shows women-to-men relative hazard ratio for each parameter obtained in model 2. MetS: metabolic syndrome; CVD: cardiovascular diseases; CI: confidence interval; HR: hazard ratio; RHR: ratio of hazard ratios; BP: blood pressure; FPG: fasting plasma glucose; TG: Triglycerides; HDL-C: high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; WC; waist circumference