Table 4.
Training Set | ||||||
ROMA | ROMA + 7MetP | Difference | P | |||
AUC (95% CI) | 0.91 (0.89 – 0.93) | 0.93 (0.91 – 0.94) | 0.01 (0.00 to 0.03) | <.001 | ||
At 11.4% risk threshold for premenopausal and 29.9% for postmenopausal (same risk as ROMA) | Sensitivity | 0.87 (0.83 – 0.91) | 0.86 (0.82 – 0.90) | −0.01 (−0.04 to 0.02) | .22 | |
Specificity | 0.79 (0.75 – 0.83) | 0.88 (0.85 – 0.91) | 0.09 (0.06 to 0.12) | <.001 | ||
PPV | 0.76 (0.71 – 0.80) | 0.84 (0.81 – 0.89) | 0.09 (0.05 to 0.12) | <.001 | ||
NPV | 0.89 (0.86 – 0.92) | 0.89 (0.86 – 0.92) | 0.00 (−0.02 to 0.02) | .36 | ||
Test Set | ||||||
ROMA | ROMA + 7MetP | Difference | P | |||
AUC (95% CI) | 0.96 (0.94–0.99) | 0.97 (0.94–0.99) | 0.01 (0.00 to 0.01) | .06 | ||
At 11.4% risk threshold for premenopausal and 29.9% for postmenopausal (same risk as ROMA) | Sensitivity | 0.96 (0.93 – 0.98) | 0.93 (0.90 – 0.96) | −0.03 (−0.05 to −0.01) | .008 | |
Specificity | 0.76 (0.70 – 0.83) | 0.91 (0.86 – 0.95) | 0.15 (0.10 to 0.20) | < .001 | ||
PPV | 0.89 (0.86 – 0.93) | 0.96 (0.93 – 0.97) | 0.06 (0.04 to 0.09) | < .001 | ||
NPV | 0.89 (0.84 – 0.94) | 0.86 (0.81 – 0.91) | −0.03 (−0.08 to 0.01) | .07 |
Abbreviations: PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value. P-values for comparison of AUCs represent likelihood ratio tests. Risk threshold corresponding to 11.4% in premenopausal women and 29.9% for postmenopausal were chosen based on reported findings from Ortiz-Munoz and colleagues.(21) 1-sided P-values are reported as we expect that the combined 7MetP+ROMA will yield improved performance estimates compared to ROMA alone.