Table 5.
Prediction of NP incidence in China for the next 10 years according to ARIMA models with 95% confidence interval (per 100,000 population)
| Year | Male subjects | Female subjects | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMA (3,1,0) | ARIMA (2,1,1) | |||||
| Forecast | Lower limit | Upper limit | Forecast | Lower limit | Upper limit | |
| 2020 | 705.46 | 704.43 | 706.49 | 917.88 | 917.49 | 918.26 |
| 2021 | 705.76 | 702.70 | 708.82 | 918.01 | 916.80 | 919.22 |
| 2022 | 706.27 | 700.60 | 711.94 | 918.26 | 916.08 | 920.45 |
| 2023 | 706.93 | 698.66 | 715.20 | 918.58 | 915.51 | 921.66 |
| 2024 | 707.67 | 697.17 | 718.16 | 918.91 | 915.14 | 922.68 |
| 2025 | 708.43 | 696.14 | 720.71 | 919.21 | 914.95 | 923.48 |
| 2026 | 709.20 | 695.45 | 722.95 | 919.48 | 914.85 | 924.10 |
| 2027 | 710.00 | 694.93 | 725.06 | 919.71 | 914.80 | 924.61 |
| 2028 | 710.84 | 694.51 | 727.18 | 919.92 | 914.77 | 925.07 |
| 2029 | 711.75 | 694.13 | 729.38 | 920.13 | 914.73 | 925.53 |
| 2030 | 712.72 | 693.81 | 731.63 | 920.35 | 914.70 | 926.00 |