Why carry out this study?

LBP and NP cause functional impairment, diminished quality of life, work disability, potential psychological distress, and increased healthcare costs

Additionally, there was no comprehensive study to explore the long-term trends of LBP and NP between different age groups and gender, and to analyze these trends from age, period, and cohort dimensions

Use of the ARIMA model to predict the incidence of LBP and NP in China is of great significance for further prevention and control

What was learned from the study?

The ASIR of LBP presented decreasing trends in China from 1990 to 2019, while the NP incidence slightly increased regardless of sex

The relative burden caused by LBP and NP is predicted to continue to increase in the next decade, which that indicates the burden remains high