Plot of SEIR populations with parameters β = 1.1, α = 0.2, γ = 0.5. The new cases ΔI are denoted by the dashed curve (“Reports” in the legend). (a) Full plot on [0, 100]. (b) Magnification of (a), restricted to the time interval [0, 50]. (c) The blue curve is a plot of the ratio I(t)/E(t). Here I ≈ cE for the first 50 days, where c = 0.31, as calculated from
(3.6). (Color available online.)