TABLE 2.
Results from the ABC analysis on northern Uganda implemented in diyabc (Cornuet et al., 2014) based on the main topology 2a (Figure 3). (a) Posterior probabilities of competing scenarios by the polychotomic weighted logistic regression method (Cornuet et al., 2008), and 95% confidence interval for the microsatellite data set. (b) Parameter estimates based on the winning Scenario 2 including the mean, 95% confidence interval (CI), median and mode of the posterior distribution, and the description of each parameter estimated
(a) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data set | Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | Error | Best scenario |
Microsatellites | 0.000 [0.000–0.000] | 0.999 [0.999–1.000] | 0.000 [0.000–0.000] | 0.000 | 2 |
(b) | |||||
Parameter | Mean | CI | Median | Mode | Description |
t1 (yrs) | 95 | 40–128 | 102 | 118 | Northwest/admixture zone “b” divergence |
t2 (yrs) | 123 | 101–135 | 126 | 135 | Northwest/northeast divergence |
t3 (yrs) | 22,625 | 20,125–31,000 | 21,125 | 20,125 | West/south divergence |
t4 (yrs) | 416,250 | 353,750–457,500 | 423,750 | 457,500 | West/northwest divergence |
N1 | 23,800 | 16,800–28,700 | 24,300 | 25,500 | Ne of northwest lineage |
N2 | 14,000 | 6,860–28,400 | 13,100 | 9,780 | Ne of admixture zone “b” |
N3 | 16,600 | 2,950–22,800 | 16,100 | 14,900 | Ne of northeast lineage |
N4 | 12,600 | 5,020–21,600 | 12,000 | 11,900 | Ne of west lineage |
N5 | 11,500 | 3,700–15,900 | 11,100 | 10,700 | Ne of south lineage |
μ | 1.13E–04 | 1.00–1.58E–04 | 1.06E–04 | 1.00E–04 | Mutation rate |
p | 0.1940 | 0.1340–0.2780 | 0.1930 | 0.1850 | Geometric distribution of change in repeat length |
Time estimates (t1, t2, t3 and t4) are expressed in years (yrs), effective population size estimates (N1, N2, N3, N4, N5) are expressed in number of breeding individuals. We also report estimates of the microsatellite mutation rate (μ) and geometric distribution of change in repeat length (P). See Figure 2 for schematics of the three scenarios and Supporting Information Table S3 for details of the priors used.