TABLE 2.

Results from the ABC analysis on northern Uganda implemented in diyabc (Cornuet et al., 2014) based on the main topology 2a (Figure 3). (a) Posterior probabilities of competing scenarios by the polychotomic weighted logistic regression method (Cornuet et al., 2008), and 95% confidence interval for the microsatellite data set. (b) Parameter estimates based on the winning Scenario 2 including the mean, 95% confidence interval (CI), median and mode of the posterior distribution, and the description of each parameter estimated

(a)
Data set	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3	Error	Best scenario
Microsatellites	0.000 [0.000–0.000]	0.999 [0.999–1.000]	0.000 [0.000–0.000]	0.000	2
(b)
Parameter	Mean	CI	Median	Mode	Description
t1 (yrs)	95	40–128	102	118	Northwest/admixture zone “b” divergence
t2 (yrs)	123	101–135	126	135	Northwest/northeast divergence
t3 (yrs)	22,625	20,125–31,000	21,125	20,125	West/south divergence
t4 (yrs)	416,250	353,750–457,500	423,750	457,500	West/northwest divergence
N1	23,800	16,800–28,700	24,300	25,500	Ne of northwest lineage
N2	14,000	6,860–28,400	13,100	9,780	Ne of admixture zone “b”
N3	16,600	2,950–22,800	16,100	14,900	Ne of northeast lineage
N4	12,600	5,020–21,600	12,000	11,900	Ne of west lineage
N5	11,500	3,700–15,900	11,100	10,700	Ne of south lineage
μ	1.13E–04	1.00–1.58E–04	1.06E–04	1.00E–04	Mutation rate
p	0.1940	0.1340–0.2780	0.1930	0.1850	Geometric distribution of change in repeat length

Time estimates (t1, t2, t3 and t4) are expressed in years (yrs), effective population size estimates (N1, N2, N3, N4, N5) are expressed in number of breeding individuals. We also report estimates of the microsatellite mutation rate (μ) and geometric distribution of change in repeat length (P). See Figure 2 for schematics of the three scenarios and Supporting Information Table S3 for details of the priors used.