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. 2022 Nov 8;17(11):e0277280. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277280

Can digital skill protect against job displacement risk caused by artificial intelligence? Empirical evidence from 701 detailed occupations

Ni Chen 1,#, Zhi Li 1,#, Bo Tang 1,*,#
Editor: Bing Xue2
PMCID: PMC9642882  PMID: 36346798

Abstract

To identify the role of digital skill in the skill-biased technological changes caused by artificial intelligence, this study estimates the impacts of displacement risk on occupational wage and employment and examines the moderation effects of digital skill through the occupational data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics through the methods of fixed-effects modeling, heterogeneity analyzing and moderation effect testing. The results highlight three main points that (1) the displacement risk by artificial intelligence has significantly negative effects on occupational wage and employment, (2) the heterogeneous effects across occupational characteristics are significant, and (3) the digital skill exerts a significant moderation effect to protect against displacement risk. The core policy implication is suggested to emphasize digital skill in education and training across occupations to accommodate job requirements in the future.

1. Introduction

The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) has made enormous contributions to industrial and economic growth over the past decade. However, anxiety about technological unemployment, namely being displaced by AI, has spread globally as technological breakthroughs and revolutions occur [1]. Although the potential risks of AI on society include ethics, security, law and education, AI’s impacts on the labor market have been heatedly debated. The relevant debates spell out an increasing concern over human right to work and engage in productive employment and whether AI can displace the roles of the workforce on a larger scale. While various occupations have recognized the potential risks of AI, the relevant debates consider whether the impact of AI on the labor market will be good or bad. On the one hand, the pessimistic voice claims that automation or computerization in the workplace turns into job loss, and many employments face displacement risk [2, 3]. For instance, Acemoglu and Restrepo [4] examined the effects of automation driven by AI on the U.S. labor market and estimated the average reduction of about 0.18% to 0.34% in employments and 0.25% to 0.5% in wages. On the other hand, the optimists state that AI guarantees the quality of economic growth and productivity improvement [5]. Furthermore, more job opportunities will be produced because employment opportunities are continually created in new occupations, such as repairers, conductors, managers, financiers, and new industries [6]. Hence, the impact of AI on the labor market is complex and multi-layered. However, one thing is for sure, the impact of technological advances on labor markets is often inseparable from skill changes in the labor force. Katz and Murphy [7] discuss skill-biased technological change (SBTC), revealing that while labor supply continues to grow, technological progress has significantly affected laborers’ employment and wage premiums. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impacts of AI on the labor market to demonstrate the relationships among displacement risk, emerging skills and labor market outcomes to provide empirical evidence for implementing technical and vocational education.

2. Literature review

According to the SBTC framework, continuous technological advancement is expected to enlarge industrial demand for highly educated labor and intensify employment inequality [8]. AI advancement causes shocks in occupations, resulting in a reduction in labor demand and wage fluctuations. Therefore, it is suitable that the SBTC framework offers feasible theoretical guidance for examining the impacts of AI on risks, skills and outcomes.

2.1. Displacement risk caused by AI

Many approaches, such as task-based, skill-based, and occupation-based methods, help measure the effects of AI displacement. Autor et al. [9] investigated routine-biased technological changes (RBTC) and classified the tasks into two dimensions: cognitive vs. mental and routine vs. non-routine, to estimate displacement risk. Frey and Osborne [3] used a Gaussian process classifier to predict the probability of computerization of 702 occupations and outlined the expected impacts on the labor force. It has been reported that 47% of U.S. employment was automated quickly. Plenty of follow-up research applied the estimated probability of computerization to explore the relationship with labor demands in other sectors. Thereby, the reason why jobs are prone to automation can be uncovered [10]. However, according to Dauth et al. [11], the use of robots altered Germany’s employment structure and shrank employment opportunities in the manufacturing industry, while employment increased in the service industry.

2.2. Digital skills for occupations

Digital skills resulted from digital literacy, which was considered to appropriately understand and use various digital sources as the modern occupational skills [12]. Deursen and Van Dijk [13] proposed various concepts to account for medium-related content-related skills, comprising operational, formal, information, communication, content creation and strategic skills [14]. In line with such concepts [15], the ability to develop and use information and communication technologies (ICT) is determined by electronically enabled information and the ability to synthesize information into practical and relevant knowledge. In the new educational scenarios, digital skills play a dominant role to transmit quality knowledge in pedagogical processes [16]. Digital skills embody a solution to addressing employment challenges and labor issues caused by technological advancement [17]. It is common to see that digital skills have been indispensable as digital technologies utilized to realize innovations nowadays [18]. Digital technologies are instrumental for daily life and work satisfaction in the digital age, thus the digital skills are more necessary to everyone than ever. According to practical results, the levels of salaries and wages are strongly correlated with digital proficiency and Internet usage, a consistent effort to increase the digital skills of individuals may be required to achieve a more effective and flexible labor market [19].

2.3. Effects of AI on labor market

Past research has explored the impact of new digital technologies on occupations outcomes such as wages and unemployment [20, 21]. Most considered AI the main factor for labor market distribution and polarization [2224]. The wage difference between high-skilled and low-skilled laborers continues to widen as manifested in the continuous tilt of income distribution to the group of highly educated and skilled laborers. The second view is that AI is an emerging technology that promotes labor productivity [2528]. Simultaneously, there is an ambiguous view that the impact of AI is not absolute and stable and is constantly changing [2931].

2.4. Summary

The above literature suggests that the technological changes by AI promote economic productivity at the macroeconomic level in the long run, while reducing wages and employment at the individual level in the short run. However, the literature gap shows that less research has investigated occupational effects of AI, even though occupation requirements are critical issues to understanding technological progress and social change, deconstructing human capital in workplaces [32]. Another significant gap in previous research is the lack of attention to digital skills. Skill about AI technologies are in demand to fill skill gaps for the new requirements in most occupations. Therefore, to identify the theoretical relationships of these variables as shown in Fig 1, this study proposes the following hypotheses:

Fig 1. Theoretical framework and hypotheses.

Fig 1

Hypothesis 1. Displacement risk will negatively affect occupational wages.

Hypothesis 2. Displacement risk will negatively affect occupational employment.

Hypothesis 3. Displacement risk and digital skills will have a positive synergistic interaction effect on occupational wage.

Hypothesis 4. Displacement risk and digital skills will have a positive synergistic interaction effect on occupational employment.

3. Methods

3.1. Empirical model

Considering the above discussion, the following equation is constructed to estimate how displacement risks caused by AI affect occupational wage and employment.

Y=α1+β1Risk+δ1Level+ε

A fixed-effect model is employed to describe how displacement risks affect occupational wage and employment after controlling the year and occupational category as fixed effects.

Yi,t=α2+β2Riski,t+δ2Leveli,t+Categoryi+Yeart+εi,t

Furthermore, the interaction term (Risk×Skill) is adopted into the fixed-effect model to estimate the moderation effect of digital skill.

Yi,t=α3+β3Riski,t+γ(Risk×Skill)i,t+δ3Leveli,t+Categoryi+Yeart+εi,t

where Y represents the annual wages (Wage) and employment (Employment) of occupations, both are used as the natural logarithm form in the subsequent estimations.

Risk represents displacement risk indicated by the occupation-specific displacement probability by AI.

Level represents a comprehensive control variable, including the main occupation characteristics clarified into five levels based on the requirements of education, experience and training.

Skill represents the digital skill requirement of occupations needed to successfully perform a job, which is the moderation variable indicated by the types of software used.

Category is the major classification of the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC), which classifies occupations at four levels of aggregation: major, minor, broad, detailed; Year is period. Parameters i and t denote the occupation belonging to the specific category and year. Consolidated.

3.2. Data collection

3.2.1. Stage 1

Collecting the raw data: This study collected data of indicators mentioned above from several publicly available datasets. First, the labor market outcome data of Wage and Employment were obtained from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) database on the website of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Second, the occupational characteristic data of Level and Category were collected from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database on the website of O*NET On-line. Third, the displacement risk data of Risk was from the estimated results by Frey and Osborne [3], who implemented the Gaussian process classification methodology to estimate the automation probability for 702 detailed occupations. All the probability results for all detailed occupations are presented in the S1 and S2 Tables and S1 Dataset of the article.

3.2.2. Stage 2

Consolidating the selected datasets: This study consolidated the selected datasets followed the principle of data availability, those samples with missing critical data were excluded. The selected datasets were matched according to the O*NET-SOC taxonomy to form the final dataset which is composed of 4,907 observations referring to 701 detailed occupations from 2013 to 2019.

3.2.3. Stage 3

Describing the dataset statistics: This study conducted the descriptive statistics of the final dataset. Table 1 summarizes the variable statistics. Overall, all the data used in this study has been uploaded for sharing as the S1 Dataset of this article.

Table 1. Descriptive statistics of the variables.
Sign N Mean SD Min. Max.
Wage ($) 4907 55,233 26,603 18,870 242,740
Employment (person) 4907 159,603 404,467 290 4612,510
Risk (%) 4907 53.609 36.781 0.280 99
Level (No.) 4907 2.944 1.097 1 5
Skill (items) 4907 29.422 42.216 0 404

Note: Level is measured as the ordinal categorical variables (1 for “occupations that need little or no preparation”, 2 for “occupations that require some preparation”, 3 for “occupations that need medium preparation”, 4 for” occupations that need considerable preparation” and 5 for “occupations that need extensive preparation”).

3.3. Statistical analysis

Various statistical analysis methods were used in this study, depending on the purpose of the analysis. First, the fixed effects model (FE) was used for the basic regression to directly estimate the effects of the displacement risk on occupational wage and employment. Second, the heterogeneity among occupations was examined by applying the grouped regression method. Finally, the moderation effects of digital skill were analyzed by employing interactions into regressions. STATA 16.0 was employed for all the statistical analyses.

4. Results

4.1. Basic regression

The regression results shown in Table 2 demonstrate that displacement risk negatively impacted occupational wage (−0.0022, p < 0.01) and occupational employment (−0.0055, p < 0.01) after controlling for occupational level, category and year as fixed effects. The estimated results suggest that a 1% increase in displacement risk was associated with a 0.22% decrease in occupational wage or a 0.55% decrease in occupational employment. These results also mean that the higher the displacement risk of occupation, the lower the occupational wage and employment. Therefore, Hypotheses 1 and 2 are confirmed.

Table 2. Basic regression results.

log of Wage log of Employment
Risk −0.0022*** −0.0055***
(0.0002) (0.0009)
Level 0.2082*** −0.2099***
(0.0071) (0.0362)
Constant 10.5716*** 12.3569***
(0.0384) (0.1891)
Category YES YES
Year YES YES
Adj. R2 0.6151 0.5333
F 213.4787 536.8086
N 4907 4907

Note

*** p < 0.01

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1; the standard error is shown in parentheses under the coefficient.

4.2. Heterogeneity analysis

As occupations have hierarchical and differentiated features, the heterogeneity analysis is necessary to determine the effects of displacement risk in the different groups of occupational levels and categories.

First, according to the occupational levels classified in O*NET, the high-level occupations require more professional knowledge, experience, and skills than low-level occupations. As shown in Table 3, the influence of displacement risk on occupational wage was significantly negative in Level 2 (−0.0015, p < 0.01), Level 3 (−0.0020, p < 0.01), Level 4 (−0.0019, p < 0.01) and Level 5 (−0.0039, p < 0.01), while the influence of displacement risk on occupational employment was only significant in Level 3 (−0.0058, p < 0.01). The results demonstrate the heterogeneous effects of displacement risk are mainly on occupational wage, suggesting that AI has a greater impact on occupational wages in higher occupational level.

Table 3. Estimation results in different occupational levels.

log of Wage log of Employment
Occupation Level 1 (N = 217) 0.0020 −0.0028
(0.0018) (0.0107)
Occupation Level 2 (N = 1904) −0.0015*** 0.0015
(0.0004) (0.0023)
Occupation Level 3 (N = 1260) −0.0020*** −0.0058***
(0.0002) (0.0018)
Occupation Level 4 (N = 987) −0.0019*** −0.0033
(0.0003) (0.0021)
Occupation Level 5 (N = 539) −0.0039*** −0.0069
(0.0009) (0.0045)

Note

*** p < 0.01

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1; the standard error is shown in parentheses under the coefficient.

Second, according to the major occupational classification in O*NET, there are 22 categories of occupations classified in this study. The estimation results of occupational categories with wage and employment both-affected are shown in Table 4. The influence of displacement risk on occupational wage and employment were significant in the occupations categories including Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media (−0.0027, p < 0.01; −0.0066, p < 0.1), Business and Financial Operations (−0.0020, p < 0.01; −0.0088, p < 0.05), Computer and Mathematical (−0.0049, p < 0.01; −0.0213, p < 0.05), Construction and Extraction (−0.0047, p < 0.01; −0.0156, p < 0.01), Educational Instruction and Library (−0.0033, p < 0.01; −0.0155, p < 0.05), Food Preparation and Serving Related (−0.0070, p < 0.01; 0.0372, p < 0.01), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (−0.0070, p < 0.01; 0.0117, p < 0.01), Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (−0.0037, p < 0.01; −0.0149, p < 0.01), Life, Physical, and Social Science (−0.0041, p < 0.01; 0.0048, p < 0.1). The results have revealed heterogeneous effects of displacement risk on occupational wage and employment in the different occupational categories. In addition, the full list of estimation results could be seen in S1 Table.

Table 4. Estimation results in different major occupational categories.

Major Occupational Categories log of Wage log of Employment
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media (N = 231) −0.0027*** −0.0066*
(0.0006) (0.0035)
Business and Financial Operations (N = 210) −0.0020*** −0.0088**
(0.0005) (0.0039)
Computer and Mathematical (N = 119) −0.0049*** −0.0213**
(0.0005) (0.0097)
Construction and Extraction (N = 392) −0.0047*** −0.0156***
(0.0006) (0.0059)
Educational Instruction and Library (N = 154) −0.0033*** −0.0155**
(0.0007) (0.0060)
Food Preparation and Serving Related (N = 112) −0.0070*** 0.0372***
(0.0009) (0.0114)
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (N = 308) −0.0070*** 0.0117***
(0.0008) (0.0043)
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair (N = 350) −0.0037*** −0.0149***
(0.0005) (0.0046)
Life, Physical, and Social Science (N = 294) −0.0041*** 0.0048*
(0.0006) (0.0028)

Note

*** p < 0.01

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1; the standard error is shown in parentheses under the coefficient.

4.3. Moderation effect

Regarding whether digital skills can moderate the negative impacts of displacement risk on occupational wage and employment, interaction (Risk×Skill) was introduced into the regression model for re-examination. Moreover, considering that digital skills are highly correlated with occupations requiring a science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) background or occupations belonging to computers and mathematics, it is necessary to examine the differences and details by sub-grouping. Table 5 reports all the results.

Table 5. Estimation results of moderation effects.

log of Wage log of Employment
Full STEM Non-STEM IT Non-IT Full STEM Non-STEM IT Non-IT
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Risk −0.0027*** 0.0005 −0.0026*** −0.0056*** −0.0027*** −0.0193*** −0.0326 −0.0191*** −0.0249* −0.0205***
(0.0002) (0.0022) (0.0002) (0.0014) (0.0002) (0.0014) (0.0201) (0.0015) (0.0139) (0.0013)
Risk×Skill 0.0002*** −0.0008 0.0002*** 0.0013 0.0003*** 0.0068*** 0.0082 0.0072*** −0.0139 0.0083***
(0.0001) (0.0008) (0.0001) (0.0012) (0.0001) (0.0005) (0.0067) (0.0005) (0.0096) (0.0005)
Level 0.2043*** 0.1985*** 0.2046*** 0.0614** 0.2049*** −0.3213*** −0.5570*** −0.3019*** −1.9324*** −0.2508***
(0.0074) (0.0220) (0.0079) (0.0237) (0.0065) (0.0362) (0.0970) (0.0391) (0.2818) (0.0307)
Constant 10.5855*** 10.8171*** 10.5602*** 11.1836*** 10.2554*** 12.7516*** 14.3074*** 12.6084*** 20.3140*** 11.8623***
(0.0391) (0.1172) (0.0413) (0.1048) (0.0282) (0.1894) (0.5048) (0.2004) (1.2550) (0.1387)
Category YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES NO NO
Year YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES YES
Adj. R2 0.6155 0.5324 0.5956 0.6662 0.4794 0.5517 0.6382 0.5494 0.7077 0.4877
F 207.5462 47.3272 159.5640 18.7182 387.6681 500.7327 181.6218 460.7728 26.0449 1997.2415
N 4907 469 4438 119 4788 4907 469 4438 119 4788

Note

*** p < 0.01

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1; the standard error is shown in parentheses under the coefficient.

In general, the estimation results of the full sample in Columns (1) and (6) show that the interaction of displacement risk and digital skill significantly impacted occupational wage (0.0002, p < 0.01) and employment (0.0068, p < 0.01), suggesting that digital skill can play a counteraction role against displacement risk. Thus, digital skills can positively moderate the negative impacts of displacement risk on occupational wage and employment. Thus, Hypotheses 3 and 4 are confirmed.

Specifically, the results of the non-STEM groups in Column (3) and Column (8) show that the interactions were significantly positive on occupational wage (0.0002, p < 0.01) and occupational employment (0.0072, p < 0.01). Moreover, the interactions of non-IT groups in Columns (5) and (10) were also significantly positive on occupational wage (0.0003, p < 0.01) and employment (0.0083, p < 0.01). The moderation effect of digital skills was clear in non-STEM and non-IT occupations. The implication may be that digital tools and IT technology can significantly improve work efficiency in these occupations. Therefore, digital skills have competitive advantages, leading to an increase in occupational wages and employment.

4.4. Robustness tests

Most related studies usually have used the displacement probability estimated by Frey and Osborne. To make the results more reliable, we decide to test the robustness of the results using different measurement of displacement risk. According to Manyika et al. [33] found some sectors have more automatable activities than others after comparing the automation potential of 19 selected sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, real estate, educational services and so on. Hence, we take their automation potential as the alternative measurement of displacement risk. Afterward, we manually selected 3 to 8 representative detailed occupations for each of 19 sectors through matching the most relative occupation title and job content. Finally, 66 representative occupations were selected for robustness testing. The alternative displacement risk was presented in Table 6, and the more details could be seen in S2 Table.

Table 6. The alternative measurement of displacement risk by sectors.

Sectors Risk_d Sectors Risk_d
Accommodation and food services 0.73 Finance and insurance 0.43
Manufacturing 0.6 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 0.41
Transportation and warehousing 0.6 Real estate 0.4
Agriculture 0.57 Administrative 0.39
Retail trade 0.53 Health care and social assistances 0.36
Mining 0.51 Information 0.36
Other services 0.49 Professionals 0.35
Construction 0.47 Management 0.35
Utilities 0.44 Educational services 0.27
Wholesale trade 0.44

The estimation results of robustness tests as shown in Table 7 demonstrate that displacement risk negatively impacted occupational wage (−0.0288, p < 0.01) represented in Column (1), but not significantly on occupational employment represented in Column (3). The estimation results of the moderation effects in Columns (2) and (4) show that the new interaction of displacement risk and digital skill significantly impacted occupational wage (0.0013, p < 0.01), but not significantly on occupational employment. Thus, after replacing the measurement of displacement risk, only the significant impact on occupational wage remains unchanged, the impacts on occupational employment are not robust.

Table 7. Estimation results of robustness tests.

Log of Wage log of Employment
(1) (2) (3) (4)
Risk −0.0288*** −0.0297*** −0.0077 −0.0089
(0.0014) (0.0014) (0.0056) (0.0059)
Risk×Skill 0.0013*** 0.0015
(0.0005) (0.0019)
Controls YES YES YES YES
Adj. R2 0.4640 0.4713 0.6347 0.6344
F 73.8832 71.2225 728.8624 670.9145
N 462 462 462 462

Note

*** p < 0.01

** p < 0.05, and

* p < 0.1; the standard error is shown in parentheses under the coefficient.

The above results are possible to be explained in two ways. On the one hand, it is demonstrated that the phenomenon of wage losses for displaced workers caused by technological progress and wage premiums arose from emerging skills has already happened among many sectors [34]. On the other hand, it may be the reason U-shaped employment distribution is known as job polarization [23], which makes the effect of AI’s displacement risk on occupational employment failing to show significance in the linear regression.

5. Discussions

This study presents empirical evidence from the United States over 2013–2019 to examine the occupational effects of AI. (1) The first finding shows that both occupational wages and employment have been negatively impacted by the displacement risk of AI, which reveals that occupations with higher displacement risk have a reduction in wages and employment. There are similar conclusions in the previous literature. Autor et al. [35] found that labor income in the United States declined in the 1980s and reported that the emergence of automation reduces labor income in industrialized countries. (2) The second finding illustrates that heterogeneous effects have been confirmed across occupational levels and categories. It was shown that the impacts of AI on occupational wages depended on workforce type [36]. Autor and Salomons [37] proposed that the employment polarization rendered by AI demands more low-skilled jobs, which means that AI negatively impacts high-skilled and intensive skilled laborers’ wages. (3) The last finding identified the positive moderation effects of digital skills. The role of ICT or digital skills in the present digital economy should not be underestimated [38]. Digital skills could drive organizations’ competitiveness and innovation capacity, which are more required to the current economic and social developments in the 21st-century [39]. AI has changed the essence of work, making digital skills a fundamental requirement of the modern labor force [40]. Thus, most occupations try to attract employees with digital skills to adapt to the increasingly digital environment. For example, the professionals in the healthcare sector with higher digital skills can provide better quality of patient treatment and more cost-effectiveness of work due to their more efficiency on information and technology [41]. Additionally, digital skills appear to improve the individual’s labor market opportunities, while 14.5% of workers with higher digital skills are changing jobs more often than 10.3% of those with fewer digital competences, according to the data in the occupation category of “hospitality, retail and other services managers” which is one of occupations at high risk of being automated [42].

Given the above findings, several policies are recommended. First, basic income supports could be established for perceivable unemployment by AI. The application of AI is bound to affect labor markets, and thus social security must concern the weak low-skilled labor as well as building the strong bottom line for whole labor force. Basic income support could provide a comprehensive social safety net against the risk of AI shock. Second, active labor market policies (ALMPs) by Calmfors [43] are another set of policy tools for countervailing the undesirable effect of AI displacement and reducing inequality and negative externalities. Bonoli [44] suggests that ALMPs increase the employment probability for low-skilled workers with basic education or vocational training and improve labor supply quality. In particular, the emergence of online platform data for ALMPs in recent years, which plays a critical role in closing the digital skill gaps such as skill training, job searching and so on [45]. According to the investigation, it is revealed that 76% of OECD and EU countries developing online training and 70% introducing new online courses for designing ALMPs for the recovery [46]. Meanwhile, online freelancing has increasingly become one important strategy of ALMPs for employment promotion, one-third of workers stem from India and 42% of all work stems from software development and tech work according to Online Labour Index 2020 [47]. Finally, filling the digital skills gap in the digital transformation plays an integral part in adapting occupational displacement trends. It is necessary to strengthen digital skills training at multiple levels of basic, professional and vocational education and to accelerate skill transformation to the new era of AI.

The study is subject to some limitations. Unobserved effects perhaps exist in this study due to the limited data of specific individuals. This study only analyzes the effect of displacement risk on wages and employment from the occupational perspective and ignores worker heterogeneity. Therefore, the results can overestimate the occupational impacts of displacement risk. Furthermore, the impacts of AI on occupations are multifaceted. Thus, another study limitation is in only discussing occupational wage and employment, while other important consequences could be deeply concerning in the future.

6. Conclusions

In summary, the increasingly widespread AI applications in the future will significantly impact occupations and working patterns, and digital skills will be the bridge for human labor and AI to work together. More importantly, the displacement by AI is not a purely technical subject. It is necessary to strengthen social and ethical discussions surrounding AI.

Supporting information

S1 Table. The full list of estimation results.

(DOCX)

S2 Table. The full list of alternative measurements.

(DOCX)

S1 Dataset. The whole dataset for this study.

(XLS)

Data Availability

All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

Funding Statement

The authors received no specific funding for this work.

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Decision Letter 0

Carlos Alberto Zúniga-González

12 Aug 2022

PONE-D-22-19557Can Digital Skill Protect against Job Displacement Risk Caused by Artificial Intelligence? Empirical Evidence from 701 Detailed OccupationsPLOS ONE

Dear Dr. Bo Tang,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript to PLOS ONE. After careful consideration, we feel that it has merit but does not fully meet PLOS ONE’s publication criteria as it currently stands. Therefore, we invite you to submit a revised version of the manuscript that addresses the points raised during the review process.

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Carlos Alberto Zúniga-González, Ph.D

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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We look forward to hearing from you.

3. Please review your reference list to ensure that it is complete and correct. If you have cited papers that have been retracted, please include the rationale for doing so in the manuscript text, or remove these references and replace them with relevant current references. Any changes to the reference list should be mentioned in the rebuttal letter that accompanies your revised manuscript. If you need to cite a retracted article, indicate the article’s retracted status in the References list and also include a citation and full reference for the retraction notice.

Additional Editor Comments:

Dear authors, the manuscript is interesting with Digital Skill Protect against Job Displacement Risk Caused by Artificial Intelligence?, I would like you clarify the question of reviewers. I suggest you some reference that may to add in introduction, review literature.

[1] Zúniga-Gonzalez, C.A. (2021). The role of the mediator and the student in the new educational scenarios: COVID-19. Electronic Journal Quality in Higher Education, 12(2), 279 - 294.

https://doi.org/10.22458/caes.v12i2.3730

[2] Bermúdez-León, D. S., & Zúniga-Gonzalez, C. A. (2016). Information and communication technologies (ICT) in response to educational needs in rural areas in Nicaragua. Rev. Iberoam. Bioecon. Climate Change, 2(4), 563–574. https://doi.org/10.5377/ribcc.v2i4.5931

[3] Blanco-Orozco, N., Arce-Díaz, E., & Zúñiga-Gonzáles, C. (2015). Integral assessment (financial, economic, social, environmental and productivity) of using bagasse and fossil fuels in power generation in Nicaragua. Revista Tecnología en Marcha, 28(4), 94-107. DOI 10.18845/tm.v28i4.2447 https://publons.com/publon/32281799/

[4] Zuniga González, C. A. (2020). Total factor productivity growth in agriculture: Malmquist index analysis of 14 countries, 1979-2008. REICE: Revista Electrónica De Investigación En Ciencias Económicas, 8(16), 68–97. https://doi.org/10.5377/reice.v8i16.10661

[5] Zuniga-Gonzalez, Carlos Alberto (2021), “Total factor productivity in the INTA Chinandega rice variety”, Mendeley Data, V2, doi: 10.17632/76m7p7mvsg.2 https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/76m7p7mvsg/2

[6] González, C. A. Z. (2011). Technical efficiency of organic fertilizer in small farms of Nicaragua: 1998-2005. African Journal of Business Management, 5(3), 967-973. https://publons.com/publon/11272633/

[7] Dios-Palomares, R., Alcaide, D., Diz, J., Jurado, M., Prieto, A., Morantes, M., & Zúñiga, C. A. (2015). Analysis of the efficiency of farming systems in Latin America and the Caribbean considering environmental issues. Revista Cientifica, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias, Universidad del Zulia, 25(1), 43-50. https://publons.com/publon/3106827/

[Note: HTML markup is below. Please do not edit.]

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: I Don't Know

Reviewer #2: Yes

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3. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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4. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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5. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: Q1: The authors clearly lay out the main hypotheses of the article, and detail the methodology used to test each of these.

Q2: “I don’t know” was selected because labor statistics fall outside the reviewer’s area of expertise. However, it is noted that the authors' statistical methods and underlying literature are explained in detail, and that for added rigor, authors conducted additional analysis with alternative displacement risk measures to confirm robustness of results. Some of the statistical methods and rationale (e.g. robustness analyses) are described in the results section; it would be good to rearrange the sections so that all analytical methods are presented together. It may also be helpful to shorten some of the tables (e.g. table 4) to focus on the most-affected categories, and include the full list in supplements.

Q3: Key variables from data sources are included in tables, and publicly-available data sources have been listed.

Q4:

The introduction and literature review sections are clear and compelling, even to an audience with limited expertise in the fields of AI and labor. However, the discussion and conclusion sections were less grounded in practical implications of the research. Given the relevance of this paper, it would be good to strengthen these sections by expounding on some of the recommendations:

- For example, a key recommendation is the need to develop more digital skills, and it is stated that the potential impact of these “cannot be under-estimated”. From the literature reviewed, could you provide a couple of examples to illustrate the effect of digital skills on occupational impacts of displacement risk from AI, especially for the most affected sectors?

- Active labor market policies are another example of a recommendation that would be enhanced by data-based examples, even if drawn from a limited number/span of studies.

- Lack of individual level data prevents understanding of other social factors that may affect findings and recommendations, as highlighted in the discussion and conclusion sections. These factors might also contribute to heterogeneity. If such data is available for any of the sectors studied, a deeper dive into this aspect could help to illustrate the interplay between social factors and observed impacts of displacement risk on occupational wages and employment.

- It would be good to discuss the findings of the robustness analysis.

- Minor copy-edits in a few places are needed.

This was an interesting and educational paper; the reviewer is keen to reflect more on its applications to their field of work (health) and looks forward to reading the published manuscript in future.

Reviewer #2: The author of the article presented showed his methodology and database and obtained results that compared his hypotheses. Specifically. The author found that the regression results demonstrate that displacement risk negatively impacted occupational wage and occupational employment;suggesting that AI has a greater impact on occupational wages in higher occupational level.Therefore, I believe that the information presented has an appropriate methodological support for its publication.

**********

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Reviewer #1: Yes: Paula Ihozo Akugizibwe

Reviewer #2: Yes: Napoleon Vicente Blanco Orozco

**********

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PLoS One. 2022 Nov 8;17(11):e0277280. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277280.r002

Author response to Decision Letter 0


24 Aug 2022

1.Response to Journal Requirements and Editor Comments:

Q1: Please ensure that your manuscript meets PLOS ONE's style requirements, including those for file naming.

Response 1: Thanks for the reminder. We have carefully read PLOS ONE's style requirements once again, and then we have checked the manuscript throughout to correct the inappropriate points. All changes have been marked so that the editor and reviewers could see and understand them straightly.

Q2: In order to meet journal requirements for reporting and reproducibility, at this time we request that you please update the Methods section to report the original source of the data and the methods used to collect it in sufficient detail for another researcher to access the same data in the same manner. Please ensure that you include a statement specifying whether the collection and analysis method complied with the terms and conditions of the data source.

Response 2: Thanks for the recommendations. We have tried to make a rearrangement in this section of “3.Methods”. And we have reported the original source of the data used in this article, namely the public website of the databases. In addition to make our data collection more transparent and reproducibility, we have reported our stages of the data collection, and have uploaded all the data used in this study for sharing as in the file “S1 Dataset”. [Lines 162-183]

Q3: Please review your reference list to ensure that it is complete and correct. If you have cited papers that have been retracted, please include the rationale for doing so in the manuscript text, or remove these references and replace them with relevant current references. Any changes to the reference list should be mentioned in the rebuttal letter that accompanies your revised manuscript. If you need to cite a retracted article, indicate the article’s retracted status in the References list and also include a citation and full reference for the retraction notice.

Response 3: Thanks for the reminder. We have double-checked and corrected the in-text citations and end-text references list as the reviewer requested. In this revised manuscript, we have cited several new references as following:

16.Zúniga-Gonzalez, C.A. (2021). The role of the mediator and the student in the new educational scenarios: COVID-19. E J Qual High Educ. 2021;12(2), 279– 294. doi: 10.22458/caes.v12i2.3730.

34.Burda MC, Mertens A. Estimating wage losses of displaced workers in Germany. Labour Econ. 2001;8(1):15-41. doi: 10.1016/s0927-5371(00)00022-1.

41.Jimenez G, et al. Digital health competencies for primary healthcare professionals: A scoping review. Int J Med Inform. 2020;143(104260):104260. doi: 10.1016/j.ijmedinf.2020.104260.

42.Pichler D, Stehrer R. Breaking Through the Digital Ceiling: ICT Skills and Labour Market Opportunities. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies. 2021. Available from: https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/240636

45.Stephany F. Closing the Digital Skill Gap : The Potential of Online Platform Data For Active Labour Markets Policies. Zenodo. 2022. Available from: https://zenodo.org/record/6684547/files/Stephany-%20Closing%20the%20Digital%20Skill%20Gap.pdf?download=1

46.Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Designing Active Labour Market Policies for the Recovery. OECD Publishing; 2021.

47.Stephany F, Kässi O, Rani U, Lehdonvirta V. Online Labour Index 2020: New ways to measure the world’s remote freelancing market. Big Data Soc. 2021;8(2):205395172110432. doi: 10.1177/20539517211043240.

We have not cited any papers that have been retracted, and we have tried our best to correct any errors we could find. However, if there are still inaccuracies, please point them out and allow us to correct.

Q4: Additional Editor Comments that suggesting some reference to add in introduction, review literature.

Response 4: Thanks for the recommendation. We have seriously read the recommended literature and cited some of them that are most relevant to our research topic in this article.

2.Response to Reviewer 1 Comments

Q1: The authors clearly lay out the main hypotheses of the article, and detail the methodology used to test each of these.

Response 1: Thanks for the reviewer’s positive comment.

Q2: “I don’t know” was selected because labor statistics fall outside the reviewer’s area of expertise. However, it is noted that the authors' statistical methods and underlying literature are explained in detail, and that for added rigor, authors conducted additional analysis with alternative displacement risk measures to confirm robustness of results. Some of the statistical methods and rationale (e.g. robustness analyses) are described in the results section; it would be good to rearrange the sections so that all analytical methods are presented together. It may also be helpful to shorten some of the tables (e.g. table 4) to focus on the most-affected categories, and include the full list in supplements.

Response 2: Thanks for the recommendations. We have added one separate section named “3.3.Statistical Analysis” in “3.Methods” to describe all the statistical analysis methods used in this study, including fixed effects model, grouped regression method and moderation effect testing. And we have reported that the statistical software STATA 16.0 was employed for all the statistical analyses. [Lines 188-195]

Then, we have followed the reviewer's suggestion to shorten the Table 4 and Table 6. After careful consideration, we decided to retain the occupational categories with significant effects both on occupational wage and employment [Lines 241]. In addition, we presented only the alternative measurement of displacement risk by sectors [Lines 282]. The detailed full list of tables was placed in “supporting information” of this revised manuscript.

Q3: Key variables from data sources are included in tables, and publicly-available data sources have been listed.

Response 3: Thanks for the reviewer’s positive comment.

Q4: The introduction and literature review sections are clear and compelling, even to an audience with limited expertise in the fields of AI and labor. However, the discussion and conclusion sections were less grounded in practical implications of the research. Given the relevance of this paper, it would be good to strengthen these sections by expounding on some of the recommendations:

- For example, a key recommendation is the need to develop more digital skills, and it is stated that the potential impact of these “cannot be under-estimated”. From the literature reviewed, could you provide a couple of examples to illustrate the effect of digital skills on occupational impacts of displacement risk from AI, especially for the most affected sectors?

Response 4.1: Thanks for the recommendations. We have listed the examples of the “healthcare sector” and the “hospitality, retail and other services managers” occupation category, to illustrate the benefits of improving digital skills to protect workers in the two most-affected occupational domains by AI [Lines 322-330].

- Active labor market policies are another example of a recommendation that would be enhanced by data-based examples, even if drawn from a limited number/span of studies.

Response 4.2: Thanks for the recommendations. We have added some specific and data-based examples as the reviewer’s suggestion, one of which is the online platform data for ALMPs in recent years while playing a critical role in closing the digital skill gaps such as skill training, job searching and so on [Lines 340-348].

- Lack of individual level data prevents understanding of other social factors that may affect findings and recommendations, as highlighted in the discussion and conclusion sections. These factors might also contribute to heterogeneity. If such data is available for any of the sectors studied, a deeper dive into this aspect could help to illustrate the interplay between social factors and observed impacts of displacement risk on occupational wages and employment.

Response 4.3: Thanks for the comments and suggestions. It is a great idea that the analysis of the displacement risk on occupational wages and employment via individual level data. In the process of this study, we had thought about detailed analyzing the impact of AI on the individual among occupations as you mentioned. However, the issues may require a separate article to deal with, we had to give up going further on this direction. We believe that the individual level data could help us more understand the relationship of AI and labor market, the detailed analysis must be useful but cannot be explored within the limits of this paper. Therefore, we regard this issue as a limitation of our research and a gap expected to focus on in future research.

- It would be good to discuss the findings of the robustness analysis.

Response 4.4: We have tried to explain and discuss the results of the robustness tests [Lines 292-298]. The main ideas are as follows:

On the one hand, in the previous literature, other studies have also summarized the phenomenon of wage losses for displaced workers caused by technological progress and wage premiums arose from emerging skills has already happened among many sectors, which is consistent with our findings.

On the other hand, we used “job polarization” to explain why the effects of the robustness tests on occupational employment are not significant, may the reason be that job polarization presenting U-shaped employment distribution as well known, which makes the effect of displacement risk on occupational employment failing to show significance in the linear regression.

- Minor copy-edits in a few places are needed.

Response 4.5: We have checked our manuscript throughout and edited for grammar and syntax to try our best to make sure our points clear and easy to be understood.

3.Response to Reviewer 2 Comments

Reviewer #2: The author of the article presented showed his methodology and database and obtained results that compared his hypotheses. Specifically. The author found that the regression results demonstrate that displacement risk negatively impacted occupational wage and occupational employment;suggesting that AI has a greater impact on occupational wages in higher occupational level. Therefore, I believe that the information presented has an appropriate methodological support for its publication.

Response: Thanks for the reviewer’s positive comment and encouragement. The changing in jobs and occupations caused by AI, has been a hot topic around the world nowadays. Although many countries have been concerned about the labor employment issues caused by AI technology for a long time, there are still no one-size-fits-all measures to deal with the protection of labors' rights in technological development. We still need to discuss and study more deeply and extensively for better policies.

Attachment

Submitted filename: Response to Reviewers.docx

Decision Letter 1

Bing Xue

25 Oct 2022

Can digital skill protect against job displacement risk caused by artificial intelligence? empirical evidence from 701 detailed occupations

PONE-D-22-19557R1

Dear Dr. Tang,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

An invoice for payment will follow shortly after the formal acceptance. To ensure an efficient process, please log into Editorial Manager at http://www.editorialmanager.com/pone/, click the 'Update My Information' link at the top of the page, and double check that your user information is up-to-date. If you have any billing related questions, please contact our Author Billing department directly at authorbilling@plos.org.

If your institution or institutions have a press office, please notify them about your upcoming paper to help maximize its impact. If they’ll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team as soon as possible -- no later than 48 hours after receiving the formal acceptance. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information, please contact onepress@plos.org.

Kind regards,

Bing Xue, Ph.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments:

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Author

1. If the authors have adequately addressed your comments raised in a previous round of review and you feel that this manuscript is now acceptable for publication, you may indicate that here to bypass the “Comments to the Author” section, enter your conflict of interest statement in the “Confidential to Editor” section, and submit your "Accept" recommendation.

Reviewer #1: (No Response)

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2. Is the manuscript technically sound, and do the data support the conclusions?

The manuscript must describe a technically sound piece of scientific research with data that supports the conclusions. Experiments must have been conducted rigorously, with appropriate controls, replication, and sample sizes. The conclusions must be drawn appropriately based on the data presented.

Reviewer #1: Yes

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3. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: Yes

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4. Have the authors made all data underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data—e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: (No Response)

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5. Is the manuscript presented in an intelligible fashion and written in standard English?

PLOS ONE does not copyedit accepted manuscripts, so the language in submitted articles must be clear, correct, and unambiguous. Any typographical or grammatical errors should be corrected at revision, so please note any specific errors here.

Reviewer #1: Yes

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6. Review Comments to the Author

Please use the space provided to explain your answers to the questions above. You may also include additional comments for the author, including concerns about dual publication, research ethics, or publication ethics. (Please upload your review as an attachment if it exceeds 20,000 characters)

Reviewer #1: Congratulations to the authors on this thorough and timely paper. My comments have largely been addressed although more could still be done to strengthen the discussion, given the importance of these recommendations. For example, in the scoping review cited under the health example (Jimenez 2020), over half the studies were from before 2005. There is literature (one example: Nazeha 2020 "A Digitally Competent Health Workforce: Scoping Review of Educational Frameworks") that cites more recent and compelling data, as well as an overview of current policies and educational efforts, that could give the authors' recommendation more weight. That said, the stated aim of this paper was "to provide empirical evidence for implementing technical and vocational education" and that aim is achieved through the analysis, so would take this recommendation as a "nice to have" rather than a prerequisite for publication.

Some other, very minor edits for grammar and syntax are suggested below:

Line 47: add "the" between "over" and "human right"

Line 99: edit "dominant role to transmit" --> "dominant role in transmitting"

Line 102: add "are" between "technologies" and "utilized"

Line 106: suggest a fullstop after "usage", or syntax edit

Lines 125 - 126: suggest editing to "AI technology skills are in demand..."

Line 255: suggest change "counteraction" to "counteractive" role

Line 272: suggest removing "according to"

Line 280: suggest removing "the" before "more details"

Line 292: suggest editing to "The above results can be explained..."

Line 297: suggest editing "failing" to "fail"

Line 324/325: suggest editing "their more efficiency on information..." to "their increased efficiency with"

Line 326/327: this sentence was a bit confusinge: is it saying that 14.5% of workers with higher digital skills change jobs often, compared to 10.3% of workers with fewer digital competencies? please clarify wording.

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Reviewer #1: Yes: Paula Ihozo Akugizibwe

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Associated Data

    This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

    Supplementary Materials

    S1 Table. The full list of estimation results.

    (DOCX)

    S2 Table. The full list of alternative measurements.

    (DOCX)

    S1 Dataset. The whole dataset for this study.

    (XLS)

    Attachment

    Submitted filename: Response to Reviewers.docx

    Data Availability Statement

    All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.


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