Table 3.
Effects of risk modifiers (covariates) on the probability of progression to state 4 (referable retinopathy) according to proposed screening intervals and retinopathy state
| State 1 to state 4 (from no retinopathy) | State 2 to state 4 (from minimal retinopathy) | State 3 to state 4 (from mild retinopathy) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Screening interval | Probability (%) | Probability (%) | Probability (%) | |
| Overall/total cohort | 0.5 year | 0.02 | 0.41 | 7.18 |
| 1 year | 0.10 | 1.27 | 12.19 | |
| 3 years | 1.28 | 5.12 | 22.16 | |
| 4 years | 2.22 | 6.70 | 24.55 | |
| Covariate: HbA1c (current) | ||||
| 6% (42 mmol/mol) | 0.5 year | <0.01 | 0.10 | 2.52 |
| 1 year | 0.01 | 0.29 | 3.85 | |
| 3 years | 0.15 | 0.87 | 5.57 | |
| 4 years | 0.24 | 1.04 | 5.84 | |
| 8% (64 mmol/mol) | 0.5 year | <0.01 | 0.24 | 4.61 |
| 1 year | 0.05 | 0.72 | 7.64 | |
| 3 years | 0.61 | 2.72 | 13.13 | |
| 4 years | 1.06 | 3.49 | 14.33 | |
| 10% (86 mmol/mol) | 0.5 year | 0.03 | 0.05 | 8.03 |
| 1 year | 0.17 | 1.66 | 13.91 | |
| 3 years | 2.18 | 7.23 | 26.77 | |
| 4 years | 3.79 | 9.75 | 30.21 | |
| Covariate sex | ||||
| Male | 0.5 year | 0.01 | 0.39 | 6.27 |
| 1 year | 0.09 | 1.20 | 10.65 | |
| 3 years | 1.13 | 4.81 | 19.53 | |
| 4 years | 1.20 | 6.28 | 21.73 | |
| Female | 0.5 year | 0.02 | 0.42 | 7.88 |
| 1 year | 0.11 | 1.30 | 13.35 | |
| 3 years | 1.40 | 5.28 | 24.07 | |
| 4 years | 2.41 | 6.93 | 26.57 | |
| Covariate current age | ||||
| 11 years old | 0.5 year | <0.01 | 0.15 | 3.65 |
| 1 year | 0.03 | 0.43 | 5.98 | |
| 3 years | 0.32 | 1.33 | 9.76 | |
| 4 years | 0.52 | 1.63 | 10.41 | |
| 14 years old | 0.5 year | 0.01 | 0.27 | 5.16 |
| 1 year | 0.07 | 0.80 | 8.62 | |
| 3 years | 0.78 | 2.95 | 15.00 | |
| 4 years | 1.32 | 3.78 | 16.39 | |
| 17 years old | 0.5 year | 0.02 | 0.45 | 7.24 |
| 1 year | 0.14 | 1.43 | 12.15 | |
| 3 years | 1.77 | 5.92 | 22.38 | |
| 4 years | 3.04 | 7.87 | 24.96 | |
| Covariate T1D duration | ||||
| 5 years | 0.5 year | <0.01 | 0.24 | 5.82 |
| 1 year | 0.06 | 0.70 | 9.66 | |
| 3 years | 0.66 | 2.41 | 16.29 | |
| 4 years | 1.09 | 3.03 | 17.53 | |
| 10 years | 0.5 year | 0.02 | 0.42 | 6.97 |
| 1 year | 0.14 | 1.31 | 11.71 | |
| 3 years | 1.64 | 5.25 | 20.94 | |
| 4 years | 2.79 | 6.92 | 23.19 | |
| 15 years | 0.5 year | 0.05 | 0.72 | 8.32 |
| 1 year | 0.29 | 2.29 | 14.14 | |
| 3 years | 3.65 | 9.99 | 26.77 | |
| 4 years | 6.23 | 13.53 | 30.52 | |
| Covariate microalbuminuria | ||||
| No | 0.5 year | 0.02 | 0.52 | 8.53 |
| 1 year | 0.11 | 1.54 | 13.60 | |
| 3 years | 1.26 | 5.41 | 21.76 | |
| 4 years | 2.12 | 6.81 | 23.47 | |
| Yes | 0.5 year | 0.02 | 0.36 | 5.45 |
| 1 year | 0.11 | 1.16 | 9.50 | |
| 3 years | 1.49 | 5.08 | 18.67 | |
| 4 years | 2.61 | 6.87 | 21.26 | |
State 4 comprises MS NPDR, severe NPDR, and mild PDR (or above) or DME.