Table 4.

Estimated coefficients obtained using autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables models.

Variables and parameters			Coefficient (β)		95% CI		P value
Number of hospitalized patients; best model: (1,0,1)
	Cta (23)b	–24.12		–41.08 to –7.16		.005
	ARc (1)	.99		.95 to 1.02		<.001
	MAd (1)	–.87		–.96 to –.78		<.001
Number of COVID-19 deaths; best model: (1,0,2)
	Ct (30)	–1.52		–2.86 to –.18		.03
	AR (1)	.96		.89 to 1.03		<.001
	MA (1)	–1.07		–1.22 to –.92		<.001
	MA (2)	.21		.09 to .34		.001
Number of positive tests; best model: (1,0,1)
	Ct (30)	–16.87		–28.93 to –4.82		<.001
	AR (1)	.96		.84 to 1.07		<.001
	MA (1)	–.89		–1.06 to –.71		<.001
Number of hospitalized patients under 5 years old; best model: (1,0,1)
	Ct (9)	–.60		–1.68 to .47		.27
	AR (1)	.96		.84 to 1.07		<.001
	MA (1)	–.89		–1.06 to –.71		<.001
Number of hospitalized patients aged 5-17 years (1,0,1)
	Ct (13)	–.40		–1.30 to .50		.39
	AR (1)	.97		.92 to 1.03		<.001
	MA (1)	–.89		–.99 to –.79		<.001
Number of hospitalized patients aged 18-59 years; best model: (1,0,1)
	Ct (23)	–11.87		–21.81 to –1.94		.02
	AR (1)	.99		.95 to 1.02		<.001
	MA (1)	–.85		–.94 to –.76		<.001
Number of hospitalized patients over 60 years old; best model: (1,0,1)
	Ct (23)	–11.44		–17.82 to –5.07		<.001
	AR (1)	.99		.96 to 1.02		<.001
	MA (1)	–.90		–.98 to –.81		<.001

^aCt: cycle threshold.

^bThe numbers in parentheses indicate the lag in days.

^cAR: autoregressive.

^dMA: moving average.