Table 5.—

Summary of Sensitivity Analysis Results

		1	2	3	4	5
	Main Analysis	ICHD-3 Migraines Only	All Headaches	No Recovery Days	Women with Menstrual Cycles	No Within-Person Means
Sample: Descriptive statistics
Participants (N)	178	174	178	178	124	178
At-risk days (N)	10,696	11,280	9969	13,136	7554	10,696
Events (N)	1870	1411	2213	2462	1266	1870
Overall event risk	0.17	0.13	0.22	0.19	0.17	0.17
Predictive performance: Cross-validation statistics
C-Statistic
Within-person	0.56 (0.54, 0.58)	0.54 (0.51, 0.57)	0.57 (0.55, 0.58)	0.56 (0.54, 0.58)	0.56 (0.54, 0.58)	0.57 (0.55, 0.59)
Overall	0.58 (0.56, 0.6)	0.57 (0.54, 0.59)	0.58 (0.56, 0.59)	0.59 (0.57, 0.60)	0.56 (0.54, 0.58)	0.59 (0.57, 0.60)
Calibration in the large
Mean intercept	0 (−0.08, 0.07)	−0.01 (−0.11, 0.1)	0 (−0.07, 0.07)	−0.01 (−0.08, 0.07)	0 (−0.1, 0.09)	0 (−0.08, 0.07)
SD of intercepts	0.29	0.49	0.24	0.32	0.29	0.25
Weak calibration
Mean intercept	−0.42 (−0.68, −0.16)	−0.9 (−1.34, −0.47)	−0.32 (−0.53, −0.11)	−0.33 (−0.54, −0.12)	−0.7 (−1.03, −0.36)	−0.28 (−0.53, −0.04)
SD of intercepts	0.14	0.37	0.17	0.08	0.15	0.12
Mean slope	0.73 (0.57, 0.9)	0.55 (0.33, 0.76)	0.75 (0.58, 0.91)	0.78 (0.64, 0.93)	0.56 (0.35, 0.77)	0.82 (0.66, 0.98)
SD of slopes	0.12	0.10	0.17	0.15	0.06	0.10
Predicted probabilities
Variance	0.004	0.003	0.005	0.004	0.003	0.003