Table 2. National level estimates from surveys data for the Omicron proportion, exponential growth rate, doubling time and net reproduction number, Italy, 6 December 2021–17 January 2022.
| Parameters | GLMM | MCMC | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applied to regional data | Applied to macro-area data | Applied to regional data | Applied to macro-area data | ||
| Mean (95% CrI) | Mean (95% CrI) | Mean (95% CrI) | Mean (95% CrI) | ||
|
National
proportion (%) |
6 December 2021 | 1.6 (1.3–2.1) | 1.8 (1.4–2.2) | 1.4 (0.9–2.1) | 0.5 (0.2–0.9) |
| 20 December 2021 | 20.0 (18.4–21.6) | 20.6 (18.9–22.2) | 21.5 (19.7–23.5) | 21.5 (19.8– 23.2) | |
| 3 January 2022 | 78.4 (76.8–79.9) | 76.9 (75.4–78.5) | 80.2 (78.6–81.9) | 80.1 (78.6–81.5) | |
| 17 January 2022 | 97.8 (97–98.5) | 97.7 (96.9–98.4) | 94.6 (93.6–95.6) | 94.6 (93.6–95.5) | |
| r (days − 1) | 0.23 (0.17–0.29) | 0.23 (0.17–0.28) | 0.22 (0.16–0.28) | 0.26 (0.18–0.35) | |
| T (days) | 3.1 (2.44–4.00) | 3.13 (2.46–4.05) | 3.27 (2.51–4.29) | 2.73 (2.01–3.79) | |
| R if GT = 4 days | 1.91 (1.69–2.14) | 1.90 (1.68–2.13) | 1.86 (1.65–2.10) | 2.04 (1.73–2.38) | |
| R if GT = 6 days | 2.37 (2.04–2.71) | 2.35 (2.03–2.69) | 2.30 (1.97–2.65) | 2.56 (2.10–3.07) | |
| R if GT = 8 days | 2.82 (2.39–3.28) | 2.80 (2.37–3.26) | 2.73 (2.29–3.21) | 3.08 (2.46–3.76) | |
CrI: credible interval; GLMM: generalised linear mixed model; GT: generation time; MCMC: Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Omicron: Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak (Pango) lineage B.1.1.529; r: growth rate of Omicron infections; R: net reproduction number; T: doubling time.