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. 2022 Nov 11;13:6870. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-34524-x

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — a–g Time series of sector-integrated refreezing for the period 1850–2300. Thick coloured lines represent ensemble mean refreezing at 1 km from 11 pre-industrial (IND), 12 historical (HIST) and 27 scenario projections, i.e., SSP1-2.6 (6 CESM2 and 1 RACMO2 members), SSP2-4.5 (6 members), SSP3-7.0 (5 members), and SSP5-8.5 (8 CESM2 and 1 RACMO2 members). One CESM2 SSP5-8.5 scenario includes ice dynamics (dyn). Coloured bands represent the maximum and minimum refreezing within each ensemble. Coloured dots and whiskers estimate the timing and uncertainties of the regional refreezing peak for SSP5-8.5 (red) and SSP3-7.0 (orange) using extrapolation of the runoff line altitude in time (see “Methods”). The black line in a–g represents the reanalysis-forced RACMO2.3p2 simulation (1958–2020)¹⁰. h Downscaled GrIS runoff from CESM2-forced RACMO2.3p2 at 1 km under SSP5-8.5 in 2080–2099. Numbers represent the land-ice area fraction producing significant runoff ( $>$ 100 mm w.e. yr $^{- 1}$ ) for the GrIS (bottom left) and individual sectors.