Table 2.
Adjusteda Average Marginal Effects (AME) Change in Media Exposure (Tips) on Smoking Susceptibility, 30-day Smoking Prevalence, Daily Smoking Initiation, and First Cigarette Initiation, Monitoring the Future, 2013–2015. Results Shown are Using Imputed Data (m = 10)
| 8th Graders | 10th Graders | 12th Graders | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AME (95% CI) | P-value | AME (95% CI) | P-value | AME (95% CI) | P-value | |
| Smoking susceptibility 5 yrs | ||||||
| 4-month depreciated (vs. < 25 percentile) | ||||||
| 25–50 percentile | −0.005 (−0.043, 0.032) | .880 | 0.002 (−0.029, 0.033) | .476 | −0.029 (−0.055, −0.003) | .105 |
| 50–75 percentile | −0.015 (−0.056, 0.026) | 0.011 (−0.028, 0.050) | −0.024 (−0.056, 0.008) | |||
| >75 percentile | −0.004 (−0.042, 0.033) | −0.015 (−0.047, 0.018) | −0.002 (−0.029, 0.025) | |||
| N | 10 352 | 9456 | 7208 | |||
| Smoking prevalence | ||||||
| 4-month depreciated (vs. < 25 percentile) | ||||||
| 25–50 percentile | 0.001 (−0.010, 0.012) | .741 | 0.007 (−0.008, 0.021) | .582 | 0.013 (−0.007, 0.032) | .103 |
| 50–75 percentile | 0.006 (−0.007, 0.019) | 0.000 (−0.015, 0.015) | 0.023 (0.005, 0.041) | |||
| >75 percentile | 0.004 (−0.009, 0.016) | 0.006 (−0.008, 0.019) | 0.010 (−0.006, 0.026) | |||
| N | 35 716 | 35 622 | 31 869 | |||
| Daily smoking initiation | ||||||
| 12-month non-depreciated (vs. < 25 percentile) | ||||||
| 25–50 percentile | 0.000 (−0.006, 0.005) | .936 | 0.002 (−0.003, 0.007) | .793 | −0.005 (−0.014, 0.004) | .506 |
| 50–75 percentile | −0.001 (−0.006, 0.003) | 0.002 (−0.004, 0.007) | 0.002 (−0.008, 0.012) | |||
| >75 percentile | −0.001 (−0.006, 0.004) | −0.001 (−0.006, 0.005) | −0.001 (−0.013, 0.011) | |||
| N | 34 913 | 33 944 | 14 535 | |||
| First cigarette initiation | ||||||
| 12-month non-depreciated (vs. <25 percentile) | ||||||
| 25–50 percentile | 0.004 (−0.004, 0.012) | .654 | 0.001 (−0.009, 0.011) | .851 | 0.012 (−0.006, 0.029) | .225 |
| 50–75 percentile | 0.000 (−0.009, 0.009) | −0.001 (−0.010, 0.008) | 0.006 (−0.011, 0.024) | |||
| >75 percentile | 0.003 (−0.005, 0.011) | −0.003 (−0.013, 0.008) | −0.004 (−0.024, 0.016) | |||
| N | 31 728 | 28 931 | 11 245 | |||
AMEs are estimated using single models with Tips media campaign exposure as the independent variable and each outcome. Each model adjusted for sex, race/ethnicity, parents’ highest education, college plans (12th graders only), living arrangement, mother’s current employment, high school program, year, census region, state cigarette price, state unemployment, county poverty, county percent population Hispanic, county percent population black, and county percent college graduates