Table 2.
Odds Ratios from Negative Binomial Model Predicting Prescription Opioid Overdose Mortality in 2016–18 Using 2010 Covariates for N = 2,013 Non-Metropolitan Counties in the Conterminous United States
| 2010 Covariates | 2010 Covariates and Change from 2000 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR | 95% CI | P | OR | 95% CI | P | |||
| Intercept (b0)a | 0.236 | (-1.159–1.630) | .741 | 1.490 | (-0.302–3.828) | .103 | ||
| Population (1 k) | 0.999 | (0.996–1.002) | .604 | 0.999 | (0.995–1.002) | .439 | ||
| Age 25 and younger (%) | 1.016 | (0.992–1.040) | .193 | 1.000 | (0.970–1.030) | .990 | ||
| Age 65 and older (%) | 1.022 | (0.995–1.050) | .113 | 1.022 | (0.992–1.054) | .153 | ||
| Hispanic, any race (%) | 0.998 | (0.990–1.005) | .505 | 1.000 | (0.992–1.008) | .928 | ||
| African American (%) | 0.985 | (0.977–0.993) | < .001 | 0.987 | (0.978–0.995) | .002 | ||
| Other or multiple races (%) | 1.012 | (1.003–1.021) | .010 | 1.013 | (1.003–1.024) | .011 | ||
| New residents within last year (%) | 1.018 | (0.993–1.043) | .154 | 1.016 | (0.990–1.042) | .238 | ||
| Urban influence code (1–12) | 0.987 | (0.963–1.012) | .318 | 0.981 | (0.956–1.007) | .144 | ||
| Interstate density (sq.mi.*100) | 1.004 | (0.976–1.034) | .763 | 1.002 | (0.974–1.031) | .873 | ||
| Poverty (%) | 0.997 | (0.981–1.012) | .680 | 0.990 | (0.969–1.011) | .351 | ||
| Vacant housing units (%) | 1.000 | (0.992–1.008) | .978 | 1.001 | (0.993–1.01) | .799 | ||
| Property crimes (per 100 k) | 1.000 | (1.000–1.000) | .653 | 1.000 | (1.000–1.000) | .364 | ||
| Religious org. jobs (per 10 k) | 0.997 | (0.995–0.999) | .013 | 0.995 | (0.992–0.998) | .002 | ||
| Community & social org. jobs (per 10 k) | 0.998 | (0.995–1.001) | .278 | 0.997 | (0.993–1.001) | .195 | ||
| Work related org. jobs (per 10 k) | 1.003 | (0.995–1.011) | .434 | 1.005 | (0.996–1.014) | .306 | ||
| Media org. jobs (per 10 k) | 0.994 | (0.988–0.999) | .030 | 0.993 | (0.987–1.000) | .034 | ||
| Non-opioid OD deaths (per 100 k) | 1.017 | (1.006–1.028) | .002 | 1.016 | (1.005–1.027) | .004 | ||
| Rx Opioid OD deaths (per 100 k) | 1.019 | (1.007–1.031) | .002 | 1.021 | (1.009–1.033) | < .001 | ||
| Illicit Opioid OD deaths (per 100 k) | 1.023 | (1.004–1.042) | .015 | 1.021 | (1.003–1.040) | .024 | ||
| Rx opioid dispensing 2010–12 (per 100) | 1.002 | (1.000–1.004) | .014 | 1.002 | (1.000–1.003) | .048 | ||
| Work disabled population (%) | 1.055 | (0.978–1.138) | .167 | 1.131 | (1.017–1.257) | .023 | ||
| Retail pharmacy jobs (per 10 k) | 1.003 | (0.998–1.007) | .257 | 1.006 | (1.000–1.012) | .065 | ||
| Physician office jobs (per 10 k) | 1.000 | (0.998–1.002) | .799 | 1.001 | (0.998–1.003) | .716 | ||
| Mental health/substance abuse jobs (per 10 k) | 1.000 | (0.999–1.001) | .568 | 1.000 | (0.999–1.001) | .967 | ||
| Hospital jobs (per 10 k) | 1.000 | (0.999–1.000) | .483 | 1.000 | (0.999–1.000) | .172 | ||
| Family social services jobs (per 10 k) | 1.000 | (0.999–1.001) | .946 | 1.001 | (0.999–1.002) | .420 | ||
| Agriculture, forestry & fishing (%) | 0.977 | (0.961–0.993) | .005 | 0.965 | (0.946–0.985) | < .001 | ||
| Mining (%) | 1.001 | (0.982–1.020) | .934 | 0.976 | (0.949–1.004) | .095 | ||
| Manufacturing (%) | 0.998 | (0.984–1.011) | .729 | 0.992 | (0.977–1.008) | .323 | ||
| Construction (%) | 0.952 | (0.927–0.978) | < .001 | 0.948 | (0.913–0.984) | .005 | ||
| Transportation & warehousing (%) | 0.999 | (0.962–1.038) | .972 | 0.979 | (0.931–1.030) | .413 | ||
| Retail trade & leisure services (%) | 1.011 | (0.995–1.028) | .182 | 1.004 | (0.983–1.027) | .694 | ||
| Change 2000–2010 | ||||||||
| Populationb | n.a | n.a | 0.997 | (0.988–1.006) | .534 | |||
| Age 25 and younger | n.a | n.a | 1.041 | (0.993–1.092) | .095 | |||
| Age 65 and older | n.a | n.a | 0.935 | (0.891–0.982) | .007 | |||
| Hispanic, any race | n.a | n.a | 0.994 | (0.962–1.026) | .687 | |||
| African American | n.a | n.a | 0.952 | (0.910–0.995) | .029 | |||
| Other or multiple races | n.a | n.a | 1.013 | (0.967–1.063) | .578 | |||
| New residents within last year | n.a | n.a | 1.000 | (0.983–1.018) | .973 | |||
| Poverty | n.a | n.a | 1.005 | (0.981–1.030) | .684 | |||
| Vacant housing units | n.a | n.a | 0.991 | (0.973–1.010) | .370 | |||
| Property crimes | n.a | n.a | 1.000 | (1.000–1.000) | .382 | |||
| Religious org. jobs | n.a | n.a | 1.002 | (0.998–1.006) | .289 | |||
| Community & social org. jobs | n.a | n.a | 1.001 | (0.997–1.005) | .588 | |||
| Work related org. jobs | n.a | n.a | 0.995 | (0.986–1.004) | .266 | |||
| Media org. jobs | n.a | n.a | 0.999 | (0.993–1.004) | .631 | |||
| Work disabled population | n.a | n.a | 0.854 | (0.706–1.033) | .104 | |||
| Retail pharmacy jobs | n.a | n.a | 0.995 | (0.989–1.002) | .151 | |||
| Physician office jobs | n.a | n.a | 1.000 | (0.997–1.003) | .982 | |||
| Mental health/substance abuse jobs | n.a | n.a | 1.001 | (0.999–1.002) | .599 | |||
| Hospital jobs | n.a | n.a | 1.001 | (1.000–1.002) | .283 | |||
| Family social services jobs | n.a | n.a | 0.999 | (0.997–1.001) | .222 | |||
| Agriculture, forestry & fishing | n.a | n.a | 1.046 | (1.015–1.077) | .004 | |||
| Mining | n.a | n.a | 1.056 | (1.002–1.113) | .044 | |||
| Manufacturing | n.a | n.a | 1.010 | (0.989–1.032) | .342 | |||
| Construction | n.a | n.a | 1.010 | (0.969–1.052) | .640 | |||
| Transportation & warehousing | n.a | n.a | 1.036 | (0.981–1.094) | .201 | |||
| Retail trade & leisure services | n.a | n.a | 1.015 | (0.991–1.041) | .225 | |||
| Statistical and Spatial Controls | ||||||||
| Spatial Lag (Queens) | 1.023 | (0.990–1.056) | .173 | 1.024 | (0.991–1.058) | .157 | ||
| Dispersiona | 1.011 | (0.909–1.124) | < .001 | 0.969 | (0.870–1.079) | < .001 | ||
| State Fixed Effects | Yes | n.a | Yes | n.a | ||||
| -2LL | 8491.913 | 8441.491 | ||||||
| pR 2 | 0.398 | 0.401 | ||||||
| χ 2 Pearson | 2642.224 | df = 1939 | 2569.869 | df = 1913 | ||||
Mortality rate (age-adjusted) per 100,000 people
OR odds ratios; CI confidence interval; two-tailed tests; a estimate; b percent change