Table 2.
Number and location of joinpoints in the final model and trend measures: annual absolute change in 5-year and 1-year AAC_S(5) and AAC_S(1), respectively, and percent change in the annual probability of cancer death (APC_D) with respective 95% confidence intervals.
| Cancer site | Stage | No. JPs final model | No. alive | Start year | End year | AAC_S(5) | AAC_S(5) 95% C.I. | AAC_S(1) | AAC_S(1) 95% C.I. | APC_D | APC_D 95% C.I. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breast | Local | 2 | 4,163 | 1975 | 1982 | −0.05 pp | (−0.226 to 0.126) | n.s. | 0.00 pp | (−0.005 to 0.003) | n.s. | 0.6% | (−1.485 to 2.662) | n.s. |
| 1982 | 1988 | 0.81 pp | (0.669–0.951) | ↑ | 0.02 pp | (0.001–0.031) | ↑ | −12.3% | (−14.184 to −10.371) | ↓ | ||||
| 1988 | 2015 | 0.13 pp | (0.116–0.151) | ↑ | 0.00 pp | (0.000–0.005) | ↑ | −6.7% | (−7.652 to −5.782) | ↓ | ||||
| Breast | Regional | 3 | 3,363 | 1975 | 1979 | 0.07 pp | (−0.285 to 0.424) | n.s. | 0.01 pp | (−0.042 to 0.062) | n.s. | −0.3% | (−1.594 to 1.069) | n.s. |
| 1979 | 1996 | 0.72 pp | (0.666–0.773) | ↑ | 0.10 pp | (0.089–0.106) | ↑ | −3.2% | (−3.462 to −2.965) | ↓ | ||||
| 1996 | 2000 | 1.23 pp | (1.047–1.416) | ↑ | 0.15 pp | (0.128–0.174) | ↑ | −7.5% | (−8.580 to −6.396) | ↓ | ||||
| 2000 | 2015 | 0.31 pp | (0.247–0.365) | ↑ | 0.04 pp | (0.029–0.043) | ↑ | −2.6% | (−3.051 to −2.050) | ↓ | ||||
| Breast | Distant | 1 | 676 | 1975 | 1993 | 0.30 pp | (0.212–0.391) | ↑ | 0.28 pp | (0.197–0.370) | ↑ | −0.9% | (−1.234 to −0.665) | ↓ |
| 1993 | 2015 | 0.79 pp | (0.711–0.865) | ↑ | 0.54 pp | (0.486–0.592) | ↑ | −2.2% | (−2.391 to −1.962) | ↓ | ||||
| Melanoma | Local | 1 | 941 | 1975 | 1981 | 0.02 pp | (−0.307 to 0.354) | n.s. | 0.00 pp | (−0.002 to 0.002) | n.s. | −0.3% | (−4.083 to 3.538) | n.s. |
| 1981 | 2015 | 0.25 pp | (0.223–0.277) | ↑ | 0.00 pp | (−0.004 to 0.008) | n.s. | −8.7% | (−9.715 to −7.760) | ↓ | ||||
| Melanoma | Regional | 0 | 134 | 1975 | 2015 | 0.47 pp | (0.380–0.559) | ↑ | 0.12 pp | (0.096–0.147) | ↑ | −1.6% | (−1.884 to −1.292) | ↓ |
| Melanoma | Distant | 1 | 60 | 1975 | 2009 | 0.14 pp | (0.046–0.237) | ↑ | 0.18 pp | (0.056–0.297) | ↑ | −0.5% | (−0.808 to −0.153) | ↓ |
| 2009 | 2015 | 2.86 pp | (2.096–3.629) | ↑ | 2.81 pp | (2.103–3.517) | ↑ | −7.9% | (−9.876 to −5.885) | ↓ | ||||
| CML | All | 2 | 294 | 1975 | 1995 | 0.67 pp | (0.453–0.879) | ↑ | 0.50 pp | (0.338–0.671) | ↑ | −1.9% | (−2.464 to −1.266) | ↓ |
| 1995 | 2010 | 2.48 pp | (2.208–2.743) | ↑ | 1.23 pp | (1.079–1.371) | ↑ | −7.5% | (−8.357 to −6.578) | ↓ | ||||
| 2010 | 2015 | −1.05 pp | (−2.479 to 0.375) | n.s. | −0.42 pp | (−1.009 to 0.160) | n.s. | 4.2% | (−1.428 to 9.897) | n.s. | ||||
| NHL | All | 4 | 1,731 | 1975 | 1983 | 0.82 pp | (0.455–1.177) | ↑ | 0.61 pp | (0.339–0.873) | ↑ | −2.3% | (−3.311 to −1.322) | ↓ |
| 1983 | 1990 | −0.30 pp | (−0.625 to 0.017) | n.s. | −0.22 pp | (−0.454 to 0.011) | n.s. | 0.9% | (−0.051 to 1.841) | n.s. | ||||
| 1990 | 1995 | 0.76 pp | (0.356–1.165) | ↑ | 0.55 pp | (0.257–0.841) | ↑ | −2.2% | (−3.387 to −1.055) | ↓ | ||||
| 1995 | 2003 | 2.00 pp | (1.785–2.216) | ↑ | 1.33 pp | (1.188–1.481) | ↑ | −6.6% | (−7.327 to −5.949) | ↓ | ||||
| 2003 | 2015 | 0.40 pp | (0.266–0.542) | ↑ | 0.25 pp | (0.165–0.336) | ↑ | −1.7% | (−2.324 to −1.137) | ↓ |
Note: Arrows up represent increasing survival; arrows down represent decreasing survival trends and n.s. are not statistically significant trends either increasing or decreasing. Bold numbers represent AAC_S(5) and AAC_S(1) > 1 survival percentage point (pp) for a later year of diagnosis, and APC_D<−5%.