Table 3. Predicted and observed 10 year event rates for the arriba instrument.
| n | Predicted event rate *1 (weighted) (%) [95% CI] | Observed event rate *1 (weighted) (%) [95% CI] | P/O ratio [95% CI *2] | |
| Total cohort | 1 973 | 9.79 [9.33; 10.25] | 9.30 [8.02; 10.59] | 1.05 [0.88; 1.25] |
| Subgroups by risk | ||||
| arriba risk < 10 % | 1 356 | 3.21 [3.06; 3.37] | 4.16 [3.10; 5.23] | 0.77 [0.54; 1.08] |
| arriba risk 10 % bis < 20 % | 388 | 14.55 [14.28; 14.83] | 10.87 [7.76; 13.99] | 1.34 [1.02; 1.77] |
| arriba risk ≥ 20 % | 229 | 29.22 [28.15; 30.30] | 27.33 [21.51; 33.14] | 1.07 [0.82; 1.44] |
| Subgroups by sex | ||||
| Men | 945 | 14.23 [13.54; 14.93] | 11.18 [9.17; 13.20] | 1.27 [1.03; 1.58] |
| Women | 1 028 | 5.64 [5.13; 6.1] | 7.55 [5.93; 9.17] | 0.75 [0.55; 1.03] |
| Subgroups by age | ||||
| 30–44 years | 690 | 3.56 [3.12; 4.0] | 2.50 [1.33; 3.67] | 1.42 [0.93; 2.32] |
| 45–59 years | 775 | 7.97 [7.41; 8.54] | 5.62 [4.00; 7.25] | 1.42 [1.08; 1.89] |
| 60–80 years | 508 | 17.61 [16.62; 18.60] | 19.56 [16.10; 23.02] | 0.90 [0.72; 1.14] |
*1 Predicted and observed event rates were calculated respectively on the basis of weighted cases of the complete case cohort.
*2 Confidence intervals for P/O ratios were calculated by bootstrapping (n = 10 000 bootstrap samples. Intervals were calculated by the bias-corrected and accelerated method)
95% CI, 95% confidence interval; P/O ratio, predicted-over-observed ratio: ratio of predicted events/observed events