eTable 3. Predicted and observed 10-year event rates for the arriba instrument.

	Predicted event rate baseline cohort n = 3446 % [95% CI]		Predicted event rate complete case cohort n = 1973 % [95% CI] (unweighted) *1		Predicted event rate complete case cohort n = 1973 % [95% CI] (weighted) *2		Observed event rate complete case cohort n = 1973 %[95% CI] (unweighted) *1		Observed event rate complete case cohort n = 1973 % [95% CI] (weighted) *2
Total	9.80	[9.46; 10.14]	8.27	[7.85; 8.70]	9.79	[9.33; 10.25]	9.93	[8.61; 11.26]	9.30	[8.02; 10.59]
Subgroups by risk
arriba risk < 10 %	3.25	[3.13; 3.38]	3.02	[2.87; 3.17]	3.21	[3.06; 3.37]	3.61	[2.62; 4.61]	4.16	[3.10; 5.23]
arriba risk 10 % bis < 20 %	14.60	[14.39; 14.80]	14.45	[14.17; 14.72]	14.55	[14.28; 14.83]	14.69	[11.15; 18.23]	10.87	[7.76; 13.99]
arriba risk ≥ 20 %	28.48	[27.83; 29.13]	28.92	[27.87; 29.98]	29.22	[28.15; 30.30]	39.30	[32.93; 45.67]	27.33	[21.51; 33.14]
Subgroups by sex
Men	14.28	[13.77; 14.79]	12.67	[12.01; 13.33]	14.23	[13.54; 14.93]	12.59	[10.47; 14.71]	11.18	[9.17; 13.20]
Women	5.66	[5.30; 6.01]	4.24	[3.84; 4.63]	5.64	[5.13; 6.15]	7.49	[5.88; 9.10]	7.55	[5.93; 9.17]
Subgroups by age
30–44 years	3.64	[3.29; 4.00]	3.23	[2.80; 3.65]	3.56	[3.12; 4.0]	2.60	[1.42; 3.80]	2.50	[1.33; 3.67]
45–59 years	8.27	[7.77; 8.77]	7.51	[6.97; 8.05]	7.97	[7.41; 8.54]	5.94	[4.27; 7.60]	5.62	[4.00; 7.25]
60–80 years	16.91	[16.33; 17.49]	16.29	[15.34; 17.24]	17.61	[16.62; 18.60]	25.98	[22.16; 29.81]	19.56	[16.10; 23.02]

*¹ Cases were not weighted. No adjustment took place.

*² Cases were weighted by inverse probability weights.

95% CI. 95% confidence interval