Table 5.

Scenario-Based and Counterfactual COVID-Free Forecasts for International Arrivals to Australia in (Millions) for 2021 Q4. The Observed Value for 2019 Q4 is 2.67.

Scenario	Mean	Median	80%	95%
Counterfactual	2.78	2.78	[2.72, 2.85]	[2.68, 2.88]
Pessimistic	1.00	0.82	[0.18, 2.13]	[0.05, 2.97]
Most likely	1.45	1.36	[0.51, 2.59]	[0.18, 3.24]
Optimistic	2.05	1.98	[1.07, 3.13]	[0.56, 3.91]
Mixture (10,80,10)	1.37	1.30	[0.40, 2.46]	[0.13, 3.07]
Mixture (10,10,80)	1.70	1.69	[0.44, 2.84]	[0.12, 3.52]