Table 8.

Scenario-Based and Counterfactual COVID-Free Forecasts for Australian Domestic Visitor Nights in (Millions) for 2020 Q4 and 2021 Q4. The Observed Value for 2019 Q4 is 102.09.

Quarter	Scenario	Mean	Median	80%	95%
2020 Q4	Counterfactual	104.99	104.99	[102.80, 107.19]	[101.64, 108.35]
2020 Q4	Pessimistic	46.08	38.35	[7.96, 99.69]	[2.23, 125.06]
2020 Q4	Most likely	64.55	59.20	[17.50, 121.52]	[5.54, 149.23]
2020 Q4	Optimistic	83.46	82.11	[35.68, 133.70]	[15.09, 161.49]
2020 Q4	Mixture (10,80,10)	61.88	57.53	[15.99, 116.43]	[5.26, 144.44]
2021 Q4	Counterfactual	108.61	108.61	[105.78, 111.44]	[104.28, 112.94]
2021 Q4	Pessimistic	72.85	73.35	[28.59, 114.90]	[11.49, 135.82]
2021 Q4	Most likely	90.11	92.99	[44.91, 131.55]	[20.32, 152.31]
2021 Q4	Optimistic	105.99	107.38	[61.14, 151.90]	[20.48, 169.30]
2021 Q4	Mixture (10,80,10)	86.41	90.03	[38.27, 128.34]	[11.72, 148.30]