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. 2022 Oct 27;28(11):2416–2423. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y

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© The Author(s) 2022, corrected publication 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — a, Income group for each country simulated as defined by the World Bank. b, Proportion of each simulated country having received full vaccination (two doses). c, Estimated proportion of each simulated country to have been infected by SARS-COV-2. d, Estimated total number of deaths per 100,000 due to COVID-19 in each simulated country. In each, gray shading indicates a country that has not been simulated.