Fig. 2. Relative changes in mortality per country under the central vaccine sharing scenarios.

Country-level estimates of vaccination coverage at the start of 2022 (a,d,g,j); total number of deaths over 2021 relative to the current scenario with unchanged behavior but increased vaccine sharing (b,e,h,k); and total number of deaths over 2021 relative to the current scenario with adaptive behavior and increased vaccine sharing (c,f,i,l). All results represent medians of 100 simulations, with model fitting spanning the range of uncertainty in infection and mortality estimates for each country. These are presented as caricatures to compare scenario impact with detailed data and associated prediction intervals provided in Supplementary Table 3. Analogous figures for infection estimates are provided in Extended Data Fig. 1.