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. 2022 Oct 27;28(11):2416–2423. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y

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© The Author(s) 2022, corrected publication 2022

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Fig. 4 — a, Efficacy profiles used for vaccination after the second dose of vaccination. b,c, Estimates for the infected proportion of the global population and average R₀ of SARS-CoV-2 strains in circulation. Median infection estimates are indicated by the thicker central line, with a 95% confidence interval for infected proportions indicated by thinner outer lines. Panel b shows separately the correlation between infection numbers with time and R₀ with time, and panel c shows the correlation between infected proportion and average R₀. d,e, Example plots comparing levels of vaccination over time in each scenario considered for a highly vaccinated country (United Kingdom) and a country with limited vaccination (Kenya). f, Example plot for a highly vaccinated country (United Kingdom) of levels of cautionary behavior used for each level of vaccine sharing, for scenarios with adapted behavior.