Extended Data Fig. 3. Total infections and mortality per economic region under scenarios with lower level behaviour adaptation.

Plots comparing estimates based on unchanged behaviour and lower level adapted behaviour. Estimated total proportion infected (a) and deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 (b) until the start of 2022 (so over all of 2020 and 2021) in each of the economic regions. All results represent medians of 100 simulations with model fitting spanning the range of uncertainty in infection and mortality estimates for each country. These are presented as caricatures to compare scenario impact with detailed data and associated prediction intervals provided in Supplementary Tables 5 and 6.