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. 2022 Oct 27;28(11):2416–2423. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y

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© The Author(s) 2022, corrected publication 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 4 — Plots comparing estimates based on unchanged behaviour and lower level adapted behaviour. Country level estimates of vaccination coverage at the start of 2022 (a,d,g,j), total number of deaths over 2021 relative to the current scenario with unchanged behaviour but increased vaccine sharing (b,e,h,k), and total number of deaths over 2021 relative to the current scenario with lower level adaptive behaviour and increased vaccine sharing (c,f,i,l). All results represent medians of 100 simulations with model fitting spanning the range of uncertainty in infection and mortality estimates for each country. These are presented as caricatures to compare scenario impact with detailed data and associated prediction intervals provided at an income group level in Tables S5 and S6.