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. 2022 Oct 27;28(11):2416–2423. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-02064-y

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© The Author(s) 2022, corrected publication 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Extended Data Fig. 5 — Plots presenting estimates based on scenarios with age biased vaccine redistribution. Panels a-h show time series plots showing the reduction (positive values) or increase (negative values) in the global number of daily infections and daily deaths compared to the default scenario, each assuming un-adapted behaviour. Panels i and j show estimated total proportion infected and deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 respectively until the start of 2022 (so over all of 2020 and 2021) in each of the economic regions. All results represent medians of 100 simulations with model fitting spanning the range of uncertainty in infection and mortality estimates for each country. These are presented as caricatures to compare scenario impact with detailed data and associated prediction intervals provided in Supplementary Tables 7 and 8.