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. 2022 Sep 22;28(11):2309–2320. doi: 10.1038/s41591-022-01980-3

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© The Author(s) 2022

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — a, Comparison of discriminative performance of CPH models trained on the metabolomic state only (MET), the three clinical predictor sets (Age+Sex, ASCVD and PANEL) and the sets’ combinations with the metabolomic state. Horizontal dashed lines indicate the median performance of the three clinical predictor sets. b, Differences in discriminative performance between the Age+Sex baseline (dashed line), metabolomic state only (blue) and the combination of Age+Sex and metabolomic state (green). c, Differences in discriminative performance between ASCVD predictors (dashed line), the combination of Age+Sex and the metabolomic state (green) and the combination of metabolomic state and ASCVD predictors (red). d, Difference in discriminative performance between comprehensive PANEL predictors (dashed line), ASCVD + MET (red) and PANEL + MET (black). a–d, Statistical measures were derived from n = 117.981 individuals; those with previous events were excluded (Supplementary Table 1). Data are presented as median (center of error bar) and 95% CI (line of error bar) determined by bootstrapping of with 1,000 iterations. b–d, The x-axis range differs across panels; vertical grid lines indicate differences of 0.02 C-index.