. 2022 Oct 6;40(12):1207–1220. doi: 10.1007/s40273-022-01191-1

Table 3.

Predicted outcomes and health economic results from age 30 years by strategy

	No screening	Screen 50	Screen 70	Screen 60	Risk-stratified 4 yearly to age 70 years	Risk stratified 2 yearly to age 70 years	Adaptive screening at age 50–70 years, interval of 6 years if PSA level < 1.5 ng/mL, 4 years if >1.5 ng/mL	Repeat screen every 4 years at age 50–70 years	Repeat screen every 2 years at age 50–70 years
Outcomes per 10,000 men^a
Number of screens	0	8285	7029	7978	6173	10,049	31,155	40,223	65,335
Number of MRI events	0	96	1022	627	834	1205	2458	2423	3519
Number of screen-initiated biopsies	0	64	631	400	538	750	1471	1452	2013
Number of clinically initiated biopsies	2817	2752	2474	2491	2390	2295	1925	1942	1826
Diagnosed PCa	1487	1488	1547	1509	1538	1555	1583	1582	1600
Screen diagnosis	0	36	245	195	278	345	569	558	636
Metastatic cancer	254	248	217	226	215	207	173	174	167
Localised and G <6	702	705	757	731	757	774	805	803	823
Localised and G = 7	292	296	313	308	313	318	336	336	339
Localised and G >7	238	239	260	244	252	256	268	269	271
Overdiagnosis	0	2	60	22	51	68	97	95	113
PCa death	527	520	512	504	497	489	457	459	444
Life-years, QALYs, costs, ICERs and NMB per man. Strategies sorted by increasing costs^a
Life years (undiscounted)	51.5370	51.5506	51.5515	51.5671	51.5707	51.5785	51.6237	51.6212	51.6388
Life-years, 3.5% discounted	23.5624	23.5652	23.5646	23.5676	23.5680	23.5692	23.5775	23.5771	23.5801
QALYs (undiscounted)	42.518	42.527	42.519	42.534	42.532	42.535	42.560	42.559	42.567
QALYs, 3.5% discounted	20.2428	20.2442	20.2419	20.2440	20.2431	20.2429	20.2452	20.2450	20.2451
NHS costs, undiscounted	2013	2042	2152	2117	2161	2224	2414	2424	2610
NHS costs, 3.5% discounted (£)	449	466	488	493	506	528	609	613	685
ICER		£12,860	Dominated	Extendedly dominated	Extendedly dominated	Extendedly dominated	£137,364	Dominated	Extendedly dominated
Net monetary benefit (£20k)^b	404,408	404,417	404,351	404,386	404,356	404,329	404,296	404,286	404,217
Net monetary benefit (£30k)^b	606,836	606,859	606,771	606,826	606,787	606,758	606,748	606,735	606,668

G Gleason score, ICER incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, MRI magnetic resonance imaging, NHS National Health Service, NMB net monetary benefit, PCa prostate cancer, QALYs quality-adjusted life-years

^aBased on life histories of 10 million simulated men

^bStrategy with the highest net monetary benefit highlighted in bold