Table 2.
Summary Statistics of Answers to the Subjective Probability-Elicitation Form
| Brief description of the MSD item | Panel A | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario 1 | Scenario 2 | |||||
| Human capital at birth is “high” Investment is “high” | Human capital at birth is “low” Investment is “high” | |||||
| Mean | Median | SD | Mean | Median | SD | |
| Speaks partial sentence | 82.27 (0.59) | 90.00 (0.84) | 16.97 (4.30) | 67.28 (0.71) | 70.00 (1.68) | 20.31 (4.37) |
| Counts three objects correctly | 79.27 (0.68) | 80.00 (0.84) | 19.58 (4.74) | 65.63 (0.74) | 70.00 (0.84) | 21.32 (4.48) |
| Knows own age and sex | 83.89 (0.59) | 90.00 (0.84) | 16.81 (4.39) | 69.80 (0.70) | 70.00 (0.84) | 20.04 (4.24) |
| Says first and last names together | 82.23 (0.67) | 90.00 (0.84) | 19.30 (5.15) | 69.19 (0.75) | 70.00 (1.60) | 21.37 (4.73) |
| Brief description of the MSD item | Panel B | |||||
| Scenario 3 | Scenario 4 | |||||
| Human capital at birth is “high” Investment is “low” | Human capital at birth is “low” Investment is “low” | |||||
| Mean | Median | SD | Mean | Median | SD | |
| Speaks partial sentence | 59.18 (0.64) | 60.00 (0.92) | 18.43 (3.99) | 46.23 (0.65) | 50.00 (0.84) | 18.76 (4.02) |
| Counts three objects correctly | 56.63 (0.71) | 60.00 (0.84) | 20.25 (4.34) | 44.69 (0.68) | 41.00 (0.84) | 19.55 (4.20) |
| Knows own age and sex | 59.84 (0.66) | 60.00 (0.84) | 18.82 (4.15) | 47.15 (0.67) | 50.00 (0.84) | 19.13 (4.13) |
| Says first and last names together | 59.68 (0.70) | 60.00 (1.68) | 20.11 (4.33) | 47.15 (0.72) | 50.00 (0.84) | 20.75 (4.41) |
Note: This table shows the mean, median, and standard deviation (SD) of maternal reports of subjective probability for each MSD item and scenario. See Figure 1 for a full description of the MSD items and scenarios. We order MSD items according to their difficulty, from easiest (“speaks partial sentence”) to hardest (“says first and last name together”). The table shows that the maternal subjective probabilities increase with human capital at birth and investments. However, they do not vary with item difficulty. We show the standard errors in parentheses.