FIGURE 7.

The genetic offset and climate sensitivity of Primula elatior climate outlier SNPs (Climate | IBR; Table 1; Figures 3 and 4) as predicted by the gradient forest algorithm. The genetic offset reflects the overall Euclidian genetic distance between the current adaptive genetic turnover (Figure 6) and the predicted adaptive genetic turnover in 2050 (left) and 2070 (right) when gene–environment relationships would be maintained. Higher genetic offset values indicate an increased maladaptation to climate change. The selected bioclimatic variables that determined the genetic offset are the max. Temperature of the warmest month and precipitation seasonality. Climate projections were based on three greenhouse gas scenarios, namely RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070 (average from 11 general circulation models). The climate sensitivity was calculated as the genetic offset weighted by the adaptive capacity (H _e of climate outliers): sqrt(Genetic Offset × [1–H _e]). Both panels were based on the following linear models: response ~ latitude + latitude² × scenario + year).