Table 3:

Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Collagen Biomarkers (PIIINP and ICTP) in adjusted Poisson models Relative risks across 1 μg/L interval categories of each collagen biomarker

	PIIINP category						p trend
Mean (μg/L)	3.93	5.00	5.94	6.92	7.89	10.3
Sample size	N=735	N=1050	N=721	N=332	N=126	N=107
All incident atrial fibrillation (N=357)
Model: adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	0.92(0.71–1.18)	1.02(0.78–1.33)	1.25(0.92–1.69)	1.4(0.89–2.18)	2.81(1.94–4.08)	<0.0001
Model: further adjusted for SBP, Ht, BMI, smoker, eGFR<60
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	0.87(0.68–1.12)	0.91(0.7–1.18)	1.03(0.76–1.41)	1.12(0.71–1.76)	2.29(1.57–3.34)	0.003
Incident atrial fibrillation without other CVD (N=227)
Model: adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	0.82(0.61–1.11)	1.02(0.75–1.38)	1.28(0.9–1.82)	1.39(0.83–2.33)	3.48(2.33–5.19)	<0.0001
Model: further adjusted for SBP, Ht, BMI, smoker, eGFR<60
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	0.78(0.58–1.06)	0.91(0.67–1.24)	1.07(0.74–1.53)	1.10(0.65–1.86)	2.75(1.83–4.15)	0.006
Incident atrial fibrillation accompanied by other CVD (N=130, 59 of which involved heart failure)
Model: adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	1.2(0.74–1.93)	1.03(0.61–1.74)	1.14(0.62–2.12)	1.39(0.57–3.38)	0.85(0.26–2.82)	0.36
Model: further adjusted for SBP, Ht, BMI, smoker, eGFR<60
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	1.14(0.7–1.84)	0.92(0.54–1.57)	0.95(0.5–1.79)	1.17(0.47–2.88)	0.75(0.22–2.51)	0.09
	ICTP category						p trend
Mean (μg/L)	2.44	3.45	4.4	5.41	6.43	9.55
Sample size	N=1329	N=1080	N=430	N=132	N=45	N=55
All incident atrial fibrillation (N=357)
Model: adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	1.21(0.97–1.5)	1.18(0.89–1.55)	2.02(1.41–2.9)	1.49(0.85–2.61)	3.46(2.36–5.07)	<0.0001
Model: further adjusted for SBP, Ht, BMI, smoker, eGFR<60
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	1.08(0.86–1.34)	0.97(0.73–1.28)	1.69(1.17–2.45)	1.04(0.59–1.84)	2.44(1.60–3.72)	0.0005
Incident atrial fibrillation without other CVD (N=227)
Model: adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	1.38(1.07–1.79)	1.22(0.88–1.7)	2.08(1.34–3.23)	1.92(1.04–3.54)	4.80(3.17–7.25)	<0.0001
Model: further adjusted for SBP, Ht, BMI, smoker, eGFR<60
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	1.24(0.95–1.61)	1.02(0.73–1.44)	1.77(1.12–2.78)	1.39(0.74–2.61)	3.67(2.31–5.83)	0.001
Incident atrial fibrillation accompanied by other CVD (N=130, 59 of which involved heart failure)
Model: adjusted for age, race/ethnicity, and sex
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	0.83(0.54–1.27)	1.07(0.65–1.75)	1.85(0.97–3.52)	0.63(0.15–2.62)	0.84(0.26–2.74)	0.36
Model: further adjusted for SBP, Ht, BMI, smoker, eGFR<60
Relative Risk (CI)	1 (ref)	0.75(0.49–1.15)	0.88(0.53–1.49)	1.58(0.8–3.1)	0.42(0.1–1.78)	0.49(0.14–1.73)	0.89

BMI: body mass index; eGFR: estimated glomerular filtration rate; ICTP: Collagen Type I Carboxy-Terminal Telopeptide; Ht: height; PIIINP: Plasma Procollagen Type III N-Terminal Propeptide; SBP: systolic blood pressure