TABLE 2.
Validation analysis of the model on population with diabetes (Million) (System dynamic model simulates the growth trend of diabetes mellitus, China. 2007–2017).
| Time (Year) | Actual data | Model 1 | Model 2 | MAPE 1 | MAPE 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 92.4 | 92.4 | 92.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2010 | 113.9 | 107.7 | 107.3 | 5.47 | 5.77 |
| 2013 | 118.5 | 119.9 | 119.4 | 1.22 | 0.77 |
| 2017 | 129.8 | 133.2 | 132.6 | 2.63 | 2.13 |
| Average MAPE | — | — | — | 2.33 | 2.17 |
Actual data are mainly based on published epidemiological data in China; Model 1 represents the diabetes journey and Model 2 represents diabetes combined with CVD journey. MAPE1 and MAPE2 indicate the results of Model 1 and Model 2, respectively. MAPE, mean absolute percentage error.