TABLE 3.
Simulated values of population with diabetes in different scenario from 2020 to 2050 (System dynamic model simulates the growth trend of diabetes mellitus, China. 2020–2050).
| Predicted population (Million) | Model 1 | Model 2 | DM none CVD | DM with CVD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DM | DM | |||
| Baseline data in 2007 | 92.40 | 92.40 | 61.08 | 31.32 |
| No intervention | ||||
| 2020 | 141.65 (Ref) | 140.94 (Ref) | 75.36 (Ref) | 65.58 (Ref) |
| 2025 | 153.90 (Ref) | 153.14 (Ref) | 75.90 (Ref) | 77.25 (Ref) |
| 2035 | 174.89 (Ref) | 173.96 (Ref) | 76.24 (Ref) | 97.71 (Ref) |
| 2050 | 202.84 (Ref) | 201.09 (Ref) | 78.21 (Ref) | 122.88 (Ref) |
| 2025 vs. 2020% | 8.65 | 8.66 | 0.72 | 17.80 |
| 2035 vs. 2020% | 23.47 | 23.43 | 1.17 | 48.99 |
| 2050 vs. 2020% | 43.20 | 42.68 | 3.78 | 87.37 |
| Lifestyle therapy | ||||
| 2020 (vs. Ref %) | 119.65 (−15.53) | 117.30 (−16.77) | 73.20 (−2.87) | 44.10 (−32.75) |
| 2025 (vs. Ref %) | 127.68 (−17.04) | 124.76 (−18.53) | 75.91 (+0.02) | 48.86 (−36.76) |
| 2035 (vs. Ref %) | 142.46 (−18.55) | 138.47 (−20.40) | 80.55 (+5.65) | 57.92 (−40.72) |
| 2050 (vs. Ref %) | 163.57 (−19.36) | 157.78 (−21.54) | 87.28 (+11.60) | 70.50 (−42.63) |
| 2025 vs. 2020% | 6.71 | 6.36 | 3.71 | 10.79 |
| 2035 vs. 2020% | 19.06 | 18.05 | 10.04 | 31.34 |
| 2050 vs. 2020% | 36.71 | 34.51 | 19.23 | 59.86 |
| Metformin therapy | ||||
| 2020 (vs. Ref %) | 125.32 (−11.53) | 124.97 (−11.33) | 70.07 (−7.02) | 54.90 (−16.29) |
| 2025 (vs. Ref %) | 134.45 (−12.64) | 134.08 (−12.45) | 71.08 (−6.35) | 62.99 (−18.46) |
| 2035 (vs. Ref %) | 150.79 (−13.78) | 150.24 (−13.64) | 72.68 (−4.67) | 77.56 (−20.62) |
| 2050 (vs. Ref %) | 173.50 (−14.46) | 172.16 (−14.39) | 75.92 (−2.93) | 96.24 (−21.68) |
| 2025 vs. 2020% | 7.29 | 7.29 | 1.44 | 14.74 |
| 2035 vs. 2020% | 20.32 | 20.22 | 3.72 | 41.28 |
| 2050 vs. 2020% | 38.45 | 37.76 | 8.35 | 75.30 |
| Acarbose therapy | ||||
| 2020 (vs. Ref %) | 125.81 (−11.18) | 124.71 (−11.52) | 73.45 (−2.53) | 51.26 (−21.84) |
| 2025 (vs. Ref %) | 134.20 (−12.80) | 133.07 (−13.11) | 74.84 (−1.40) | 58.23 (−24.62) |
| 2035 (vs. Ref %) | 148.86 (−14.88) | 147.73 (−15.08) | 76.88 (+0.84) | 70.85 (−27.49) |
| 2050 (vs. Ref %) | 169.16 (−16.60) | 167.79 (−16.56) | 80.63 (+3.09) | 87.16 (−29.07) |
| 2025 vs. 2020% | 6.67 | 6.70 | 1.89 | 13.60 |
| 2035 vs. 2020% | 18.32 | 18.46 | 4.67 | 38.22 |
| 2050 vs. 2020% | 34.46 | 34.54 | 9.78 | 70.04 |
| Voglibose therapy | ||||
| 2020 (vs. Ref %) | 112.67 (−20.46) | 116.93 (−17.04) | 50.13 (−33.48) | 66.79 (+1.85) |
| 2025 (vs. Ref %) | 116.88 (−24.05) | 122.25 (−20.17) | 46.24 (−39.08) | 76.01 (−1.61) |
| 2035 (vs. Ref %) | 124.27 (−28.94) | 131.59 (−24.36) | 41.49 (−45.58) | 90.09 (−7.80) |
| 2050 (vs. Ref %) | 135.51 (-33.19) | 145.16 (−27.81) | 39.77 (−49.15) | 105.39 (−14.23) |
| 2025 vs. 2020% | 3.74 | 4.55 | −7.76 | 13.80 |
| 2035 vs. 2020% | 10.30 | 12.54 | −17.24 | 34.89 |
| 2050 vs. 2020% | 20.27 | 24.14 | −20.67 | 57.79 |
DM, diabetes mellitus; CVD, cardiovascular disease. Models 1 and 2 refer to diabetes and diabetes combined with CVD, respectively.