Table 2.

Summary of mental health system performance measures pre, during, and post ‘lockdown’ within the first wave of the pandemic in the UK. Presented results are for the mean over the considered periods, with ‘Pre’ and ‘During’ estimated empirically and ‘Post’ forecast through the simulation model under the considered scenario. Performance is measured by queue size (the number of referrals awaiting commencement of treatment) and wait time (number of days spent in queue before entering service). Change is the percentage difference between ‘Pre’ and ‘Post’ periods.

Service node	Measure (mean)	Baseline scenario				Intervention one		Intervention two
		Pre	During	Post	Change	Post	Change	Post	Change
L2 social prescribing	Queue size	273	150	482	77%	470	72%	475	74%
	Wait time	21	19	22	5%	22	5%	22	5%
L2 IAPT assessment	Queue size	3658	2740	6702	83%	6384	75%	6570	80%
	Wait time	59	60	59	0%	58	−2%	59	0%
L2 IAPT therapy	Queue size	8	8	8	0%	151	1788%	8	0%
	Wait time	1	1	1	0%	12	1100%	1	0%
L3 GP initial	Queue size	152	77	166	9%	167	10%	172	13%
	Wait time	1	1	1	0%	1	0%	1	0%
L3 GP long term low intensity	Queue size	12	8	13	8%	12	0%	12	0%
	Wait time	1	1	1	0%	1	0%	1	0%
L3 GP long term high intensity	Queue size	42	25	46	10%	36	−14%	37	−12%
	Wait time	1	1	1	0%	1	0%	1	0%
L4 MHP triage	Queue size	100	58	109	9%	114	14%	118	18%
	Wait time	1	1	1	0%	1	0%	1	0%
L4 MHP crisis	Queue size	8	5	9	13%	11	38%	10	25%
	Wait time	1	1	1	0%	1	0%	1	0.0%
L4 MHP community	Queue size	519	431	600	16%	36	−93%	1142	120%
	Wait time	34	34	35	3%	1	−97%	38	12%
L5 inpatient	Queue size	3	3	31	933%	43	1333%	92	2967%
	Wait time	1	1	7	600%	9	800%	18	1700%