Table 3.
Predicted and actual cumulative totals of incidence, deaths, tests, hospital admissions, and long COVID between February 1st, 2020 and October 1st, 2022 in the UK.
| Cumulative totals from February 1st, 2020 to | October 1st, 2021 | October 1st, 2022 | October 1st, 2022 | Data source of actual numbers for October 1st, 2021 and 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario assuming FTTIS is 25% effective | Actual | Projected in October 2021 | Actual | |
| Estimated incidence | 15,153,730 | 60,697,287 | 105,678,303 | IHME |
| Confirmed cases by PCR | 7,643,136 | 16,002,831 | 22,241,311 | UK Government COVID-19 dashboard |
| Deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test | 136,207 | 142,437 | 177,977 | UK Government COVID-19 dashboard |
| Tests (both PCR and LFD) | 302,707,235 | 636,316,101 | 514,605,757 | UK Government COVID-19 dashboard |
| Hospital admissions | 536,258 | 684,004 | 993,657 | UK Government COVID-19 dashboard |
| Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome | 831,000 | 1,358,661 | 1,825,000 | ONS Infection survey |
Post-acute COVID-19 Syndrome definition—self reported symptoms more than 12 weeks after presumed C-19 infection—ONS Infection Survey September 5th, 2021 and September 3rd, 2022.
FTTIS = Find, Test, Trace, Isolate, and Support system which in between February 2020 and October 2021 was estimated to be 25% efficient; IHME, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation; PCR, polymerase chain reaction test; LFD, lateral flow device test.