Table 3.

Association of Changes in Community‐Area Violent Crime with Change in Cardiovascular Outcomes

Outcome*	Cardiovascular mortality rates			Coronary artery disease mortality rates			Stroke mortality rates
Variable	Estimate	95% CI	P value	Estimate	95% CI	P value	Estimate	95% CI	P value
Violent crime rate*	0.21†	0.09 to 0.33	0.0006	0.19†	0.042 to 0.33	0.01	0.17†	−0.077 to 0.422	0.18
Proportion of residents non‐Hispanic Black	−0.005	−0.008 to −0.001	0.01	−0.003	−0.008 to 0.001	0.15	0.0003	−0.008 to 0.008	0.95
Proportion of residents Hispanic (any race or ethnicity)	0.003	0.001 to 0.005	0.007	0.003	0.0007 to 0.006	0.01	0.005	0.001 to 0.010	0.03
Proportion of residents other race‡	−0.008	−0.014 to −0.001	0.02	−0.010	−0.018 to −0.002	0.02	0.01	−0.004 to 0.024	0.15
Unemployment rate	0.004	−0.0004 to 0.008	0.08	0.004	−0.001 to 0.009	0.13	−0.007	−0.015 to 0.002	0.14
Vacant housing rate	4.26×10−6	1.77×10−6 to 6.75×10−6	0.001	5.45×10−6	2.37×10−6 to 8.53×10−6	0.0007	3.27×10−6	−2.00×10−6 to 8.54×10−6	0.23
Median household income	0.001	−0.003 to 0.006	0.52	0.002	−0.004 to 0.007	0.52	0.01	0.001 to 0.019	0.04
Less than high school education attainment rate	−0.002	−0.005 to 0.001	0.19	−0.005	−0.009 to −0.001	0.02	0.001	−0.006 to 0.008	0.74
Period 2000–2004	Reference
Period 2005–2009	−0.24	−0.29 to −0.19	<0.0001	−0.36	−0.43 to −0.30	<0.0001	−0.28	−0.39 to −0.16	<0.0001
Period 2010–2014	−0.27	−0.35 to −0.20	<0.0001	−0.51	−0.60 to 0.41	<0.0001	−0.35	−0.50 to −0.19	<0.0001

^*Included in model as a log transformed variable. Rate is per 100 000 residents.

^† A 1% change in the independent variable associated with a percent change in the outcome equal to the estimate value.

^‡ Other race includes Asian, American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander, 2 or more races, or some other race.