Table 2.
Multilevel linear models for excess death rate.
| Dimension of the predictor variables | Predictor variables |
Time-adjusted regression coefficient |
95% CI |
p-value |
Time- and confounder-adjusted regression coefficient |
95% CI |
p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Time (phase) | 12.392 | (0.422, 24.362) | 0.042 | -9.040 | (-16.971, -1.108) | 0.025 | |
| Box A. Social, political and economic determinants | GDP per capita (thousand USD) | 4.736 | (-1.644, 11.116) | 0.146 | - | - | - |
| Poverty (%) | -0.913 | (-2.139, 0.313) | 0.144 | - | - | - | |
| Gini coefficient for income | -148.271 | (-451.733, 155.192) | 0.338 | - | - | - | |
| Average per capita monthly income (USD) | 0.215 | (-0.021, 0.452) | 0.074 | - | - | - | |
| Urban population (%) | 0.876 | (0.249, 1.502) | 0.006 | - | - | - | |
| Box B. Factors outside the health sector | Unemployment rate (%) | 8.443 | (5.506, 11.380) | <0.001 | - | - | - |
| Overcrowded conditions (%) | -3.104 | (-6.385, 0.177) | 0.064 | - | - | - | |
| Access to improved water sources (%) | 0.665 | (0.082, 1.249) | 0.025 | - | - | - | |
| Access to improved sanitation facilities (%) | 0.939 | (0.205, 1.673) | 0.012 | - | - | - | |
| Years of schooling (median) | 9.216 | (2.140, 16.292) | 0.011 | - | - | - | |
| Box C. Factors within the health sector | Health insurance (%) | -1.284 | (-2.137, -0.431) | 0.003 | - | - | - |
| Density of human resources for health (per 10,000 population) | -1.518 | (-3.426, 0.389) | 0.119 | - | - | - | |
| Per capita health expenditure (USD) | -1.342 | (-2.246, -0.439) | 0.004 | - | - | - | |
| Healthcare access (per 100,000 population) | -0.006 | (-0.008, -0.004) | <0.001 | -0.004 | (-0.005, -0.002) | <0.001 | |
| Box D. Pandemic COVID-19 interventions | Per capita expenditure of COVID-19 pandemic health budget (USD) | -1.204 | (-1.905, -0.502) | 0.001 | - | - | - |
| Number of COVID-19 test (per 100,000 population) | 0.059 | (0.005, 0.007) | <0.001 | - | - | - | |
| Box E. Exposure and susceptibility factors | People with comorbidities (%) | 2.052 | (0.179, 3.925) | 0.032 | - | - | - |
| People currently smoking (%) | 0.927 | (-2.895, 4.749) | 0.635 | - | - | - | |
| Box F. Covid-19 infections | COVID-19 Incidence (per 100,000 population) | 0.062 | (0.051, 0.072) | <0.001 | 0.052 | (0.042, 0.063) | <0.001 |
Values represent time-adjusted coefficients and 95% coefficient interval (CI). Comorbidities included hypertension, diabetes mellitus and obesity.