Table 4:
Adjusted ORs of VLs at specific thresholds by previous VL result
| Next VL >50 copies per mL | Next VL ≥200 copies per mL | Next VL ≥1000 copies per mL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted OR (95% CI) | p value | Adjusted OR (95% CI) | p value | Adjusted OR (95% CI) | p value | |
| Sex | ||||||
| Male | 1·19 (1·17–1·21) | <0·0001 | 1·11 (1·09–1·14) | <0·0001 | 1·09 (1·06–1·13) | <0·0001 |
| Female | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Age at ART initiation, years* | 0·99 (0·98–1·00) | 0·22 | 0·95 (0·94–0·96) | <0·0001 | 0·91 (0·90–0·92) | <0·0001 |
| Time on ART, years† | 0·92 (0·91–0·93) | <0·0001 | 0·94 (0·93–0·95) | <0·0001 | 0·95 (0·94–0·97) | <0·0001 |
| First VL ≥12 months after ART initiation | 1·02 (1·00–1·04) | 0·14 | 1·03 (1·00–1·05) | 0·054 | 1·02 (0·98–1·05) | 0·38 |
| Documented dispense ratio since last VL ≥51%‡ | 0·92 (0·90–0·94) | <0·0001 | 0·89 (0·87–0·91) | <0·0001 | 0·85 (0·82–0·87) | <0·0001 |
| Patients on non-dolutegravir-based ART§ | ||||||
| Most recent VL ≤50 copies per mL | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| Most recent VL 51–199 copies per mL | 2·63 (2·52–2·74) | <0·0001 | 1·75 (1·66–1·86) | <0·0001 | 1·72 (1·61–1·85) | <0·0001 |
| Most recent VL 200–399 copies per mL | 2·77 (2·58–2·98) | <0·0001 | 2·76 (2·54–3·01) | <0·0001 | 2·12 (1·89–2·37) | <0·0001 |
| Most recent VL 400–999 copies per mL | 3·24 (3·01–3·49) | <0·0001 | 3·47 (3·19–3·77) | <0·0001 | 3·21 (2·90–3·55) | <0·0001 |
| Most recent VL ≥1000 copies per mL | 4·27 (3·97–4·59) | <0·0001 | 4·64 (4·29–5·01) | <0·0001 | 4·51 (4·14–4·91) | <0·0001 |
| Patients on dolutegravir-based ART§ | ||||||
| Most recent VL ≤50 copies per mL | 0·99 (0·96–1·01) | 0·26 | 0·93 (0·90–0·96) | <0·0001 | 0·93 (0·90–0·97) | 0·0008 |
| Most recent VL 51–199 copies per mL | 2·07 (2·01–2·14) | <0·0001 | 1·45 (1·38–1·51) | <0·0001 | 1·40 (1·32–1·48) | <0·0001 |
| Most recent VL 200–399 copies per mL | 1·98 (1·87–2·09) | <0·0001 | 1·81 (1·70–1·94) | <0·0001 | 1·71 (1·57–1·87) | <0·0001 |
| Most recent VL 400–999 copies per mL | 2·00 (1·89–2·11) | <0·0001 | 1·98 (1·85–2·12) | <0·0001 | 1·96 (1·79–2·13) | <0·0001 |
| Most recent VL ≥1000 copies per mL | 2·60 (2·48–2·73) | <0·0001 | 2·51 (2·38–2·66) | <0·0001 | 2·43 (2·28–2·60) | <0·0001 |
Mixed-effects logistic regression analysis, adjusted ORs using each VL result with at least one available subsequent VL result. In each model, facility and patient identifications were treated as random effects (intercepts) to account for facility-level clustering and repeated measurements among patients. All other variables were set as fixed effects. OR=odds ratio. VL=viral load. ART=antiretroviral therapy.
Reference is age 18 years.
Per year.
Documented dispense ratio since last VL was calculated as the number of documented doses received since the previous VL measurement divided by the number of days since that measurement.
The effect of low-level viraemia at the previous VL is reported separately for patients on dolutegravir-based and non-dolutegravir-based ART at time of outcome VL.